Leading market research firm Frost & Sullivan recently unveiled a forecast estimating that the demand for small satellite launches could exceed 11,000 units by 2030. Primary needs would lie in new constellation installations and replacement missions. This would take the market past the $69 billion mark.
Right now, a handful of firms, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX, dominate the market. However, this growth could open up opportunities for new firms and encourage aerospace giants like Boeing, Lockheed, and Airbus to delve more deeply into this area. Frost & Sullivan analyst Kamalanathan Kaspar noted that seven new firms entered this space in Q3 of 2018 alone. New manufacturing businesses may also be formed further down the supply chain.
Additional forecast findings include:
- Small satellites in the weight segments of 0 to 30 pounds and 300 to 1,100 pounds will cumulatively account for nearly 75% of the small-satellite launch demand.
- 97.7% of the total payload weight will be generated by commercial operators, with Space X, EarthNow, and OneWeb serving as the major contributors.
- 37 small-satellite commercial operators will generate more than 90% of the launch demand for constellation installation and replacement missions.
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