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Gas Prices Expected to Rise With Spring Temperatures

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Gas Prices Expected to Rise With Spring Temperatures

As of this writing, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) places the average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. at $2.42. This is an increase of 11 cents/gal from the February 2018 average, but 14 cents/gal lower than the same time last year. This stems from significant fluctuations in crude oil prices.

Retail gasoline prices tend to be lowest in the winter months (December through February) before increasing in the spring. This trend occurs, in part, because refineries begin processing summer-grade gas in February and March, which is more expensive to produce. During the 2018-19 winter driving season, the lowest weekly average price of retail gasoline was in the first week of January, at $2.24/gal. The lowest average price in the past decade occurred in mid-February 2016, at $1.72/gal.

Large gasoline inventories also put downward pressure on gasoline prices in February 2019. High refinery runs combined with lower demand were the primary contributors. Gas production in 2018 and early 2019 have outpaced consumption, leading to inventories in the last week of February 2019 that were 3 million barrels (1.2%) higher than at the same time last year.

The EIA also estimates that refinery-level crude oil acquisition costs account for about half of the gasoline price seen at the pump. Additionally, U.S. average diesel fuel prices are up to $3.08 per gallon, eight cents higher than a year ago.

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