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FAA Projecting Huge Increase in Commercial Drones

Jeff Reinke
1/27/2019 | 5 min read
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FAA Projecting Huge Increase in Commercial Drones

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently unveiled statistics showing that as many as 450,000 unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, could be operating in the domestic airspace by 2022. The agency estimates the current number at about 110,000.

That increase doesn’t account for potential changes to federal drone restrictions that could make it easier to buy and operate drones in public spaces. If these guidelines are loosened, that projection could grow significantly. Another significant factor that will undoubtedly influence this projection is the use of drones by retailers and logistics companies. Notable stakeholders on this front include Amazon and UPS.

The agency also sees the ranks of commercial-drone pilots climbing past 300,000 during this same period. This number would be more than a 400 percent increase from the roughly 70,000 current pilots. These projections would imply there will be more commercial drones and pilots than private aviators and manned aircraft.

If the regulations governing drone operation continue to become laxer, the agency estimates overall commercial-drone numbers could top 600,000 by 2030. At this level, the number of drones would be nearly triple the size of the country’s general aviation fleet.

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