According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 report published by the Energy Information Administration, adoption of autonomous vehicles could lead to higher transportation energy consumption. On-road vehicles currently account for 31 percent of all end-use energy, so as travel continues to increase and becomes more palatable due to advancements like driverless technologies, so will the amount of energy being demanded by the vehicles doing the traveling. By 2050, light-duty vehicle miles alone are projected to reach 3.3 trillion – 18 percent higher than in 2017.
The EIA offered scenarios accounting for autonomous vehicles powered by conventional gasoline internal combustion engines, electric batteries, and hybrid platforms. Despite energy efficiency improvements, the amount of energy consumed increased by up to four percent in each instance because of increased light-duty vehicle travel. In all three cases, however, conventional gasoline engines were the most common technology powering light-duty vehicles.
Furthermore, the EIA explores some of the tactics taken by long-haul commercial trucking fleets. This group could start using automation technology to improve fuel efficiency through platooning, where groups of vehicles travel in a tight formation to reduce aerodynamic drag.
However, the energy consumption effects of these changes for commercial trucks or other modes, such as mass transit, are relatively small compared with the consumption changes in light-duty vehicles. It appears that the improved fuel economy of these tactics, as well as battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, may only partially offset the increase in travel demand and the related level of energy that is needed.
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