PMA Report forecasts declining business over next 3 months.
Press Release Summary:
November 2009 PMA Business Conditions Report, which sampled 137 metalforming companies in U.S. and Canada, shows anticipated dip in business conditions and incoming orders over next 3 months. While 27% forecast an improvement in overall economic activity, 48% predict unchanged activity, and 25% suspect decline. Similarly, 31% expect increased orders, and 38% anticipate no change. As opposed to last year during same period, 67% of members reported declining orders.
Original Press Release:
Business Conditions Report: November 2009
CLEVELAND, OH-November 18, 2009-According to the November 2009 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies anticipate a dip in business conditions and incoming orders. Conducted monthly, the report is an economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 137 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada.
The November report shows that metalformers expect general economic activity to decline during the next three months. Twenty-seven percent of participants forecast an improvement in overall economic activity (down from 30% in October), 48% predict that activity will remain unchanged (compared to 54% last month) and 25% report that activity will decline (up from 16% in October).
The percent of metalforming companies forecasting a decrease in incoming orders during the next three months rose from 22% in October to 31% in November. Increased orders are expected by 31% (down from 38% in October), and 38% anticipate no change (down from 40% the previous month). By comparison, last year at this time, 67% of members reported declining orders.
Current average daily shipping levels remained steady for the third month in a row. Fifty-three percent of participants report that shipping levels are above levels of three months ago (compared to 54% in October), 32% report no change (compared to 31% in October) and 15% report that shipping levels are below levels of three months ago (the same percentage reported last month). In contrast, one year ago, daily shipping levels were declining rapidly, with 59% of members reporting declines.
The number of metalforming companies with a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff decreased to 56% in November, down from 60% in October. One year ago, layoffs were starting to rise dramatically and eventually peaked at 85% in April 2009.
"Business conditions being reported by PMA members are consistent with the uncertainties most manufacturers are facing. They are unsure whether the recent rebound in orders and shipments will continue at current or higher levels, or whether they will decline as we approach year-end and early 2010," said William E. Gaskin, PMA president. "Compared with one year ago, the outlook for the metalforming industry is very positive. However, one issue of growing concern is the ability for companies, whose profitability has been temporarily impaired by the recession, to access the credit they need to finance growth. PMA has been working with members of Congress, the Small Business Administration and the White House to develop solutions to this growing problem."
The monthly Business Conditions Report has been conducted by PMA since 1979. Full report results are available at pma.org/about/stats/BCreport. PMA is the full-service trade association representing the $91-billion metalforming industry of North America-the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slide forming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Its nearly 1,100 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry. PMA leads innovative member companies toward superior competitiveness and profitability through advocacy, networking, statistics, the PMA Educational Foundation, METALFORM tradeshows and MetalForming magazine.
