PMA Report expect business conditions to remain unchanged.
Press Release Summary:
Based on May 2009 PMA Business Conditions Report, companies expect economic activity to decrease somewhat during next 3 months, with 46% anticipating no change. Metalformers overall expect slight decline in incoming orders, while 17% predict rise in shipping levels over 3 months. Companies with workforce on short time or layoff decreased to 80% in May. There are early indicators of economic recovery, according to William E. Gaskin, but modest recovery isn't expected until Q4 2009.
Original Press Release:
Business Conditions Report: May 2009
CLEVELAND, OH - May 13, 2009 - According to the May 2009 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies expect business conditions to remain virtually unchanged during the next three months. Conducted monthly, the report is an economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 142 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada.
Metalformers anticipate general economic activity will decrease somewhat during the next three months. Nineteen percent of participants predict an improvement in overall economic activity (the same percentage reported in April), 46% expect that activity will remain unchanged (down from 54% last month) and 35% reported that activity will decline (up from 27% in April).
Metalforming companies also anticipate a slight decline in incoming orders during the next three months. Thirty-nine percent predict a decrease in orders (up from 31% in April), 36% expect no change (down from 45% the previous month), and 25% of companies forecast an increase in orders (compared to 24% reported in April).
However, current average daily shipping levels improved somewhat in May. Seventeen percent of participants report that shipping levels are above levels of three months ago (compared to 12% in April), 34% report no change (up from 26% in April) and 49% report that shipping levels are below levels of three months ago (down from 62% last month).
The number of metalforming companies with a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff decreased to 80% in May, down from 85% in April. This marks the first time since last summer that there has been a decrease in the number of companies with workers on short time or layoff had steadily increased from 17% in July 2008 to its peak of 85% in April 2009.
"Orders and shipments in the metalforming industry generally slow down somewhat over the summer months, due to vacations and model changeovers in several markets, and this year is no exception," commented PMA President William E. Gaskin. "What is different this year is that significant portions of the automotive supply chain are operating at very low volumes and soft business conditions continue in virtually every other market as well. While there are some early indicators of economic recovery, it is likely to be the fourth quarter of 2009 before there is a start of a modest recovery, with the first quarter of 2010 likely to be the first sign of significant improvement for most companies."
The monthly Business Conditions Report has been conducted by PMA since 1979. Full report results are available at pma.org/about/stats/BCreport. PMA is the full-service trade association representing the $91-billion metalforming industry of North America - the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slide forming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Its nearly 1,100 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry. PMA leads innovative member companies toward superior competitiveness and profitability through advocacy, networking, statistics, the PMA Educational Foundation, METALFORM tradeshows and MetalForming magazine.
