November 2011 PMA Business Conditions Report predicts decline.November 30, 2011 -
Metalforming companies, according to November 2011 PMA Business Conditions Report, predict continued decline in business conditions during next 3 months. Of 132 participants, 11% expect improvement, 61% predict no change, and 28% forecast decline. Companies also expect slight decrease in incoming orders. Average daily shipping levels decreased in November, and percentage of metalforming companies with portion of workforce on short time or layoff increased to 17%.
Business Conditions Report: November 2011
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Precision Metalforming Association, Custom Roll Forming Institute Div.
6363 Oak Tree Blvd.
Independence, OH, 44130
Press release date: November 22, 2011
CLEVELAND, OH-According to the November 2011 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies predict a continued decline in business conditions during the next three months. Conducted monthly, the report is an economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 132 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada.
The November report shows that only 11% of participants expect economic activity to improve during the next three months (down from 20% in October), 61% predict that activity will remain unchanged (compared to 56% last month) and 28% report that activity will decline (up from 24% in October).
Metalforming companies also expect a slight decrease in incoming orders during the next three months, with only 21% anticipating an increase in orders (down from 26% in October), 49% forecasting no change (compared to 45% last month) and 30% predicting a decrease in orders (up slightly from 29% in October).
Average daily shipping levels decreased in November. Twenty-seven percent of participants report that shipping levels are above levels of three months ago (down from 38% in October), 47% report that shipping levels are the same as three months ago (compared to 44% last month), and 26% report a decrease in shipping levels (compared to 18% in October).
The percentage of metalforming companies with a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff spiked to 17% in November, up from 8% in October. This number is comparable to last November, when companies reported 15% of their workforce on short time or layoff.
"PMA members are signaling caution regarding the general economy, most likely because it continues to be impacted by political dysfunction with the deficit committee deadlocked and apparently ready to allow action on the U.S. deficit to be a 2012 campaign issue, rather than addressing it in a timely manner," said William E. Gaskin, PMA president. "However, year-to-date, the typical PMA member reports 12% growth in shipments for the first 9 months compared to 2010 and most expect similar growth in 2012. Housing starts have been at an annual rate of more than 600,000 units for four of the past five months, manufacturing output grew by 0.5% in October and inventories remain lean. PMA's November Business Conditions report indicated that while expectations for current shipping levels softened somewhat, expectations are still more positive than they were in November 2010."
The monthly Business Conditions Report has been conducted by PMA since 1979. Full report results are available at pma.org/public/business_reports/pdf/BCREP.pdf. PMA is the full-service trade association representing the $113-billion metalforming industry of North America-the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slide forming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Its nearly 1,000 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry. PMA leads innovative member companies toward superior competitiveness and profitability through advocacy, networking, statistics, the PMA Educational Foundation, FABTECH and METALFORM tradeshows, and MetalForming magazine.