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December 21, 2009
Weekly Industry Crib Sheet: Attention (and Funding) Shifts to Manufacturing
Plus: Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Rise, North American Metals Shipments Take a Dip, Boeing Dreamliner Takes to the Skies and MORE.
Leading Economic Indicators Up 8 Consecutive Months
The Conference Board's forward-looking index of leading economic indicators increased again in November, suggesting recovery from recession is gaining momentum. The index advanced 0.9 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in October and a revised 1.2 percent jump in September, the research firm said.
Six of the 10 leading indicators were positive last month. For the first time since December 2007, employment did not make a negative contribution to the index
The index, which had fallen steadily since mid-2007, has risen for eight consecutive months and is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007. The six-month growth in the index has slowed somewhat in recent months to 4.7 percent (about a 9.6 percent annual rate) in the period through November but it remains substantially higher than the increase of 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate) from November 2008 to May 2009.
"The indicators point to a bright new year," Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. "Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010."
Attention (and Funding) Shifts to Manufacturing
The White House issued a report last week saying American manufacturers face "enormous challenges" and called for an additional $5 billion for the Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit.
The new "Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing" report outlines the traditional issues facing manufacturing, as well as new initiatives that the education and business sectors must undertake to change the direction of U.S. manufacturing. The report lays out the following tax and policy initiatives that will be undertaken to support the move to a more diverse manufacturing landscape:
- Provide workers with the opportunity to obtain the skills necessary to be highly productive.
- Invest in the creation of new technologies and business practices.
- Develop stable and efficient capital markets for business investment.
- Help communities and workers transition to a better future.
- Invest in an advanced transportation infrastructure.
- Ensure market access and a level playing field.
- Improve the business climate, especially for manufacturing.
The report, which has earned generally high marks from key industry groups, was released as the White House confirmed a $5 billion expansion of tax credits for clean technology manufacturing.
Vice President Joe Biden announced that the $2.3 billion of tax credits currently available in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit program will be expanded with additional funds that will leverage $15 billion in private sector investment and work immediately to create new clean-energy manufacturing jobs.
The program, which requires congressional approval, includes plans to offer 30 percent tax credits to investors in factories working with targeted technologies in the wind energy and solar energy sectors, as well as batteries.
Steel and Aluminum Shipments Dip in November
North American metals service centers' monthly shipments of steel and aluminum declined in November, though the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reports there are signs of stability in the market. In particular, the group pointed to the narrower rates of decline for steel shipments by service centers in the U.S. and Canada.
According to the MSCI's Metals Activity Report, U.S. steel shipments in November fell at only about half the rate when compared with shipments from the same month last year. U.S. centers' November steel shipments amounted to almost 2.33 million tons, about 14 percent less than the November 2008 shipment total.
In Canada, steel shipments were down 4 percent from the year-ago level. Both rates of decline were substantially lower than in October. Canadian service centers' steel shipments last month totaled 429,200 tons, 4.4 percent less than was shipped in November 2008.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian aluminum shipments declined, but at only about two-thirds of the amount as last month's rate of decline.
Boeing Dreamliner Takes to the Skies
After more than two years of setbacks, The Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliner took to the sky for the first time last week, making its maiden flight on Tuesday.
"The flight marks the beginning of a flight test program that will see six airplanes flying nearly around the clock and around the globe, with the airplane's first delivery scheduled for fourth quarter 2010," a statement from the company reads.
The Dreamliner is Boeing's next-generation, wide-body plane, made largely out of lighter composite materials to increase fuel efficiency and extend its flight range. Problems with its supply chain and unforeseen complications in its composite design caused Boeing to postpone its maiden flight five times, with the latest delay back in June. The plane was originally scheduled to fly in September 2007.
Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise in the U.S.
More Americans than anticipated filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the latest weekly report from the U.S. Department of Labor. In the week ended Dec. 12, initial claims for jobless benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000, the Labor Department said last week. The previous week's revised figure was 473,000.
Jobless claims were projected to drop to 465,000 from 474,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 475,000.
The four-week moving average was 467,500, a 5,250 drop from the previous week's revised average of 472,750.
"The four-week moving average continues to fall, showing that the labor market is moving in the right direction, though it still may take some time before we actually add jobs," a senior analyst at BMO Capital Markets told Dow Jones Newswires.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that "the hiring of temporary workers has surged, suggesting that the nation's employers might soon take the next step, bringing on permanent workers, if they can just convince themselves that the upturn in the economy will be sustained."
Report: 'Protectionism Intensified in 2009'
Protectionist pressures have not relented in the latter part of this year, according to a new report by Global Trade Alert (GTA), a project of independent researchers.
The Group of 20 (G-20) industrialized and developing nations have failed to keep their pledge to "abstain from protectionist measures and instead continue to enact policies that help domestic over foreign producers," the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) says of last week's published report.
"GTA, which monitors government actions that affect trade, said the flow of measures that discriminate against foreign producers was undiminished in the second half of 2009, even though most leading economies emerged from recession," the Journal explains.
According to GTA, the world's governments have implemented 297 "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy measures in the 12 months after G-20 leaders made their pledge in November 2008. The number of measures announced but not yet implemented that could curb trade has risen from 134 to 188 in the last three months, according to the GTA report.
"These figures suggest that protectionist pressures have not abated, despite indications that the world's largest economies are gradually beginning to recover from the crisis," the report says.
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