Leading Economic Indicators Rise in October
The leading indicators index (LEI) for the United States economy rose by 0.3 percent in October, following a 1 percent gain in September and marking the seventh consecutive month of growth, according to a report from The Conference Board last week.

Although the LEI is up at an annual pace of 10.2 percent, the 0.3 percent growth in October was below the 0.4 percent expected by economists in a poll conducted by MarketWatch. Similarly, the coincident indicators (payrolls, industrial output, incomes and sales) were unchanged in October and have remained relatively flat since June, according to The Conference Board.

"After half a year of consecutive increases, the month-to-month growth of the LEI is stabilizing and the gains continue to be broad-based," Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist for The Conference Board, said in an announcement of the findings. "The composite indexes suggest the recovery is unfolding and economic activity should continue improving in the near term."

Although conditions are generally improving, forecasts that the effects of various stimulus efforts — such as the government's "cash for clunkers" program and home-buyer tax credits — will soon dwindle have raised concerns over the strength and pace of the current recovery, the Associated Press reports. "We're still getting some positive momentum, but it looks like things are slowing down again," Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, told the AP.

Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70 percent of the U.S. economy, is another key factor on the rebound. Along with business expenditures, consumer spending has been constrained for more than a year, driving down demand across a range of industries.

"The data indicate that economic recovery is finally setting in. We can expect slow growth through the first half of 2010," Ken Goldstein, economist for The Conference Board, said in an announcement of the economic index report. "The pace of growth, however, will depend critically on how much demand picks up, and how soon."

Senate Health Care Bill Debate to Begin
Democratic leaders in the Senate last week unveiled the final version of their health care bill. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act seeks to provide coverage to 94 percent of Americans including 31 million people who do not now have coverage.

According to analysts at the Congressional Budget Office, an independent, nonpartisan agency, the Senate bill will cost $849 billion over 10 years and will cut the deficit by $127 billion over that period, and $650 billion in the following decade. It also meets President Obama's requirement that any plan fall below a $900 billion cost for 10 years.

That information likely helped the bill attain the 60 votes it needed to ensure an actual debate on the Senate floor. The Senate voted on Saturday to begin full debate on major health care legislation, propelling the bill over a crucial, preliminary hurdle. The 60-to-39 vote, along party lines, clears the way for weeks of floor proceedings that will begin after Thanksgiving and last through much of December.

The bill is quite different from that of the House of Representatives, and the two will have to be reconciled at some point, creating a brand-new bill for Congress to vote on one more time. The New York Times provides a detailed comparison of the two plans.

Business leaders have expressed strong concern over the legislation, saying it represents a dangerous expansion in the role of government that would increase taxes and insurance costs for millions of people. In a statement from the National Association of Manufacturers, President John Engler expressed disappointment that the new bill includes surtaxes and other additional financial burdens to small businesses, manufacturers and employees, as well as limitations on flexible spending accounts.

"Reform should focus on reducing costs, improving access and preserving what is working in the current system," Engler said. "When our economy is still struggling deeply and unemployment is at a record high, it is not the right time to put more burdens on America's job creators."

September-October Steel Shipments and Inventories
The American Iron and Steel Institute reported last week that U.S. steel mills shipped 5,793,000 net tons in September, a 3.9 percent increase from the 5,570,000 net tons shipped in August. This was a 26.9 percent decrease from the 7,920,000 net tons shipped in September 2008. A month-to-month comparison of shipments showed the following changes: hot dipped galvanized sheet and strip, up 24 percent; hot rolled sheet, up 8 percent; and cold rolled sheet, up 1 percent.

Also last week, the Metals Service Center Institute's Metals Activity Report showed that shipments of steel products from metals service centers in the U.S. last month rose from September levels. October steel shipments from U.S. metals service centers totaled nearly 2.62 million tons, a 2.3 percent rise from September shipments but 28 percent below year-ago volume. Inventories for the metal at service centers also rose slightly, totaling 5.93 million tons at the end of October — a 2.3 percent gain over September but a 40.9 percent drop from a year ago. At current shipping rates, that represents a 2.3-month supply.

GM to Begin Repaying Debts Ahead of Schedule
After emerging from bankruptcy in July and posting a $1.15 billion loss in the third quarter, the newly restructured General Motors Co. last week vowed to begin repaying its debts to the U.S. and Canadian governments starting in December, ahead of schedule, MarketWatch reports.

Stabilizing auto sales and improved global economic conditions are contributing to this promising outlook for the automaker, leading GM to declare that it will repay its $6.7 billion loan from the U.S. Treasury along with the $1.4 billion borrowed from Canada's export development agency sooner than expected, Agence France-Presse reports.

"We have significantly more work to do, but today's results provide evidence of the solid foundation we're building for the new GM With a healthier balance sheet and a competitive cost structure, our focus is on driving top line performance," GM President and CEO Fritz Henderson said in a statement.

Much of the positive results stem from GM's performance in China, which offset some of its losses at home. According to Reuters, the company's market share in China grew by an estimated 50 percent this year, making it a top seller, and the automaker expects a 10 percent to 15 percent gain in 2010.