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Hardcover, 576pp
Harvard Business Press, October 2008 (Updated and Expanded)
ISBN-13: 978-1422126967
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October 5, 2009

Weekly Industry Crib Sheet: Vehicle Sales Decline in September

By IMT Staff

Plus: Latest Job Losses, Rising Truck Volumes, Asia's Manufacturing Output and Optimism from G7.

Cash for Clunkers Hangover
In the first month after the end of the government's "cash for clunkers" program, automakers on Thursday reported nearly across-the-board sales declines for September.

Automakers sold 745,997 vehicles last month, compared with 964,783 in September 2008, according to Autodata Corp. Sales of cars and light trucks slid 41 percent from August.

"Most automakers reported low inventories during September but said production increases were starting to replenish them," the Associated Press reports.

General Motors Co. sold 156,673 vehicles in September, a 45 percent slump, with retail sales off 46 percent and fleet sales declining 43 percent, the Detroit News reports. GM said sales of its Buick brand declined 33 percent and Cadillac sales declined 8.8 percent. "While September was a difficult month for GM, the Detroit automaker said it estimates that its market share for September will top 21 percent, the highest level of the year for the Detroit automaker," the Detroit Free Press reports.

At Chrysler LLC, total U.S. sales came in at 62,197, a decrease of 42 percent. The automaker's U.S. sales in September, down from 107,349 in the same month last year, were due in large part to inventory issues.

Ford Motor Co.'s September sales experienced the smallest decline of the six biggest automakers. It reported its latest monthly U.S. auto sales dropped 5.1 percent, to 114,655 vehicles from 116,734 a year ago. Retail sales fell 14 percent while fleet sales jumped 23 percent. Ford said its total truck sales, which include SUVs and crossovers, dropped 6.9 percent to 71,049 units. In July, Ford's total sales rose 2 percent and then skyrocketed 17 percent in August at the height of the clunkers program.

Toyota Motor Corp.'s September deliveries dropped about 13 percent from the same month last year, Bloomberg News says. "The Japanese automaker sold 126,015 vehicles last month, compared to 144,260 in September 2008," according to the Detroit News.

Sales of cars and trucks were down 20 percent at Honda and 7 percent at Nissan. "The best news for the month came from Hyundai, which has been gaining momentum throughout the recession," the New York Times says. Of the top companies, only Hyundai posted higher sales, up 27 percent from September 2008.

Job Losses Accelerate in September
The U.S. economy again shed hundreds of thousands of jobs in September, driving the unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent, up from 9.7 percent in August and 9.4 percent in July.

The nation's employers eliminated 263,000 more jobs last month, the U.S. Department of Labor said on Friday. There were 15.1 million unemployed workers across the country last month, nearly double the 7.6 million recorded at the beginning of the recession in December 2007.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate was the highest since June 1983 and payrolls had now dropped for 21 consecutive months.

August Truck Volumes are Up
Truck tonnage was up 2.1 percent in August, according to the American Trucking Associations' (ATA) advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index. This gain matched July's 2.1 uptick, bringing the index to 104.1 (2000=100) which is its best reading since February 2009.

The "not seasonally adjusted index," which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 105.8 in August, down 0.5 percent from July. Compared with August 2008, seasonally adjusted tonnage fell 7.5 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since November 2008.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that the increase in August is a positive sign, although he remained cautious regarding consistent growth moving forward.

"The gains in tonnage during July and August reflect a growing economy and less of an overhang in inventories," Costello said in a statement. "While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, most economic indicators, including industrial output and household spending, suggest freight tonnage will exhibit moderate, and probably inconsistent, growth in the months ahead."

Asian Manufacturing Shows Steady Growth
Recent reports show that the Chinese and Japanese manufacturing sectors continue to display steady signs of growth, despite the persistence of mixed conditions within the U.S. and elsewhere.

The latest data from the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI showed that the rate of growth in Chinese manufacturing accelerated in August, with the index rising to 55.1 from 52.8 the previous month. This was the fifth consecutive month of manufacturing production growth and the highest level since April 2008, as well as the third straight month of industrial workforce growth.

"[M]anufacturing enterprises are now able to hire more workers to meet increased demand. These findings suggest that the Chinese manufacturing sector is likely to see further improvements in the coming months, adding fuel to overall growth recovery," Hongbin Qu, the chief economist at HSBC's China division, said in an announcement of the findings.

Despite these positive signs, much of the Chinese recovery still depends on conditions improving abroad. According to Agence France-Presse, "Manufacturing accounted for more than 40% of China's economic output last year, which has been hit hard by evaporating demand for its products in key export markets such as the U.S. and Europe."

Japan has also experienced growth, with manufacturing output rising by 1.8 percent in August, the sixth consecutive month of improvement, Bloomberg News reports. Buoyed by higher demand, Japanese firms are also expecting production to increase by 1.1 percent in September and 2.2 percent in October.

G7 Ministers Claim Recovery is Faster than Expected
At a meeting in Istanbul this Saturday, finance ministers from the Group of Seven, a committee representing seven of the world's wealthiest nations, said that the world economy was recovering at a faster rate than expected, though the turnaround remains in a fragile state, the AP reports.

The finance officials cited economic policy measures such as governmental deficit spending and severely reduced interest rates for driving much of the current recovery. But despite improvements in industrial output and consumer confidence, the global labor market remains relatively weak, leading committee members to urge caution and continued support for stimulus efforts.

In a joint message, the G7 representatives asserted that "there is no room for complacency since the prospects for growth remain fragile and labor market conditions are not yet improving. We will keep in place our support measures until recovery is assured," Reuters reports.

However, the G7 may not be coordinating economic policy in the coming future, as much of its duties are set to pass to the larger G20 group, according to the Guardian. The G20, which includes China, India and Brazil, is expected to play the key role for financial decision-making. Starting in 2011, the original G7 nations will begin meeting on a more informal basis to discuss issues of mutual interest.


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