Even as the world economy continues to suffer, the value of United States surface trade with Canada and Mexico through September 2008 was up $58.8 billion over 2007. The government's most current statistics show a boost of 8.8 percent over last year.

In September alone, trade using surface transportation between the U.S. and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners was $71.8 billion, higher by 7.5 percent than in 2007. Overall, imports from the NAFTA countries declined by 4.8 percent, year over year, in September; exports grew by 16.1 percent.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics has issued final figures for U.S. freight shipments with Canada and Mexico for all of 2007. For the year, goods valued at $909 billion crossed the border, which was 4.9 percent higher than in 2006.

However, in its Global Economic Prospects report, released this month, the World Bank projected that world trade volume would contract 2.1 percent in 2009, the first decline since 1982. The expected decline in trade volume "is driven first and foremost by a sharp drop in demand, as the global financial crisis imposes a rare simultaneous recession in high-income countries and a sharp slowdown across the developing world," the report said.

As noted earlier this year, growing public ire about our current trade and globalization policies played an enormously important role in the latest presidential election.

Now that the people have spoken, having elected Barack Obama as the next president of the U.S, what will the president-elect do (or not do) for trade — particularly NAFTA — once in office?

Since the beginning of his presidential campaign, Obama declared that NAFTA and other free trade agreements would need to be amended to make sure that "enforceable labor and environmental provisions prevailed," notes the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS). "This has been echoed by the Democratic Party in its 'Renewing America's Promise' document.

"Of particular interest in this document is the intention to recommit to an alliance of the Americas and the need for 'smart, strong and fair trade policies,' including amending NAFTA," the IPS continues.

"I've consistently said on trade issues that I want environmental and labor provisions that are enforceable in those trade agreements. But I also have said that I believe in free trade and don't think that we can draw a moat around the American economy. I think that would be a mistake," Barack Obama stated in his first newspaper interview as president-elect.

In recent weeks, businesses have had few clues regarding who will be the next U.S. trade representative. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) was thought to be a top candidate for the job, and the absence of any announcement in the two weeks since Becerra's name surfaced raised doubts about that. Then, yesterday Becerra withdrew his name from consideration to serve as the new president's chief trade negotiator.

One of the telling reasons for declining, as Becerra laid it out to the editorial board of La Opinion, is that trade issues "would not be priority No. 1, and perhaps, not even priority No. 2 or 3" for the new administration.

A recent appointment to the Cabinet might offer some insight so far regarding Obama's economic policies. Earlier this month, Obama tapped New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democratic free-trader once described as a NAFTA "cheerleader," as secretary of the Department of Commerce.

While Obama has voted for some free-trade agreements and against others in Senate votes and in his campaign, the choice of Richardson as commerce secretary means the president-elect is more likely to ignore protectionist pressure.

Why? "Three reasons stand out," according to Forbes.com:

First, Richardson owes his political ascendancy to [...] NAFTA. Second, Richardson, whose own White House bid fizzled in early January, stood out from the rest of the Democratic pack as the most pro-free-trade candidate during the campaign. Third, Richardson's remarks in recent months offer clear insights into his — and Obama's — true views on trade.

The commerce secretary, among other duties, promotes U.S. international trade. The trade representative — thought to be Becerra, now up in the air — is responsible for developing trade policy and advising the president on trade issues.

The appointments of Richardson and Rahm Emanuel — previously President Bill Clinton's White House point man on NAFTA — coupled with Obama's choice of Timothy Geithner as his treasury secretary and Lawrence Summers as head of the national economic council "are seen as strong indicators that Obama will ignore protectionist pressure from Democrats in Congress and labour unions and back away from his campaign pledge to renegotiate the U.S.-Canada-Mexico deal," according to Canada's Toronto Star.

Yet Becerra's sentiment, that Obama is unlikely to focus on trade issues early in his term, is shared in a recent Milwaukee Journal Sentinel piece by John Torinus, chairman of Wisconsin-based printing firm Serigraph Inc.

Once in office, Obama "will not work to amend NAFTA as he proposed in his campaign, when he labeled the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada 'a bad deal,'" Torinus wrote.

"[A]s always, business people who face an expanding and more interconnected global economy will have to figure it out for themselves," Torinus continued. "If you are involved in manufacturing or other sectors involved in trade, don't expect much change or help from the new government."

Presidential campaigning throughout the year created the impression that, if elected, Obama or his then Democratic competitor, Sen. Hillary Clinton, would change NAFTA or abandon it. Was all that talk purely political or will the man who steps into the Oval Office next month follow through on his vows? And how long will he wait to address the issue?

Earlier: NAFTA: Threat or Theater?

Resources

September 2008 Surface Trade with Canada and Mexico Rose 7.5 Percent from September 2007
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Dec. 1, 2008

U.S. Freight Shipments with Canada and Mexico Reached a Record High in 2007
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Nov. 19, 2008

Global Economic Prospects 2009: Commodities at the Crossroads
World Bank, Dec. 9, 2008

Obama's Agenda for Change and the 2009 Summit of the Americas
by Rick Arnold and Manuel Pérez Rocha
Institute for Policy Studies, Dec. 2, 2008

Text of Obama's First Newspaper Interview as President-elect
via Los Angeles Times/Top of the Ticket blog, Dec. 10, 2008

Business in the Dark on Obama Trade Pick
Reuters, Dec. 16, 2008

Becerra: Trade Not Priority for Obama
ABC News/The Note blog, Dec. 16, 2008

Obama, NAFTA and Free Trade
by Daniel Hemel
Forbes.com, Nov. 25, 2008

NAFTA Supporter Joins Obama Inner Circle
by Tim Harper
Toronto Star, Dec. 4, 2008

Obama Unlikely to Focus on Trade Early in Term
by John Torinus
Journal Sentinel, Dec. 6, 2008