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Hardcover, 576pp
Harvard Business Press, October 2008 (Updated and Expanded)
ISBN-13: 978-1422126967
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« Light Friday: Annoying Coworkers, Not-So-Friendly Skies... | Main | 2008 Priorities in Global Trade Compliance »


June 30, 2008

Weekly Industry Crib Sheet: The Fed Holds Steady. . .

By David R. Butcher

... while Oil and Inflation Rise and Consumer Confidence and Small-Biz Mood Drop.

Fed Holds Steady
When is doing nothing news? When it's the Federal Reserve Board.

The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to leave interest rates untouched, bringing an end to a string of consecutive rate cuts. The central bank announced that it was keeping the federal funds rate (the interest rate that banks charge each other) at 2 percent, marking the first time in 10 months that the central bank has failed to reduce interest rates at one of its regular meetings. The Fed is shifting its concern away from short-term interest rates to inflation, saying that the risks posed to the United States economy by upward pressure on prices have increased, notes MarketWatch.

The dollar lost ground against the euro a day after the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Oil Price Crosses $140
Amid a declining dollar and after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned prices could hit $170 this year, oil prices crossed $140 a barrel for the first time in New York and London on Thursday, as noted by Agence France-Press. "The price of crude oil shot up on the new dollar weakness, which makes the dollar-denominated commodity cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies," the French news service reports.

In an interview with France 24 (via AFP) on Thursday, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said crude could hit a record 170 dollars this year owing to a weak U.S. currency and geopolitical unrest.

Inflation in Europe
Inflation hit Europe hard on Friday, with stocks mostly down as oil traded at a new record of $142 per barrel. "European markets traded lower Friday, after oil rose to a record $142.0 per barrel, spiking concerns of faster global inflation," Forbes reports.

After oil rose to cross $140 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the British pound, for instance, traded at $1.9884, down from $1.9910 Thursday.

Consumer Confidence Grows Dimmer
U.S. consumer confidence plunged in June to reach its fifth lowest reading ever, as expectations reached a record low, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a May reading that was revised to 58.1 from a prior estimate of 57.2.

In the latest reading, those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 32.5 percent from 29.7 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 11.5 percent from 13.0 percent last month. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 30.5 percent in June from 28.3 percent in May.

Jobless Claims Unchanged
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits was unchanged last week, according to the Dept. of Labor last Thursday. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 384,000 in the week ended June 21, matching the revised level in the prior week, the Labor Department said.

The four-week moving average was 378,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

Small-Biz Mood Drops
Declining business conditions continued to drag down economic confidence among the nation's small-business owners, Discover reports in its June Small Business Watch.

In a national survey of approximately 1,000 owners, 79 percent said they felt the economy is getting worse, an increase from 71 percent in May and the highest level in more than two years. More than half said conditions for their business were getting worse. As a result, increasingly more were cutting spending and hiring plans for the months ahead, while struggling with cash flow issues, according to the survey's findings.

Truck Tonnage Rises
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) says that its seasonally adjusted for-hire Truck Tonnage Index was up 0.5 percent in May after dropping 0.6 percent in March. This marks the first tonnage increase on a month-to-month basis since January, according to the ATA.

Although tonnage has shown positive growth, the trucking industry continues to feel the effects of increasing diesel prices, slow consumer spending and retailer performance and general economic malaise. "Year-over-year comparisons continue to reflect the weakness of 2007 rather than robust growth in 2008," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement.

Diesel Prices Sink Slightly
In its latest weekly reading, the Energy Information Administration reports that retail diesel prices sunk slightly week before last, to $4.648 per gallon, with the national average remaining above $4 per gallon.

The week's price was 181.3 cents higher than the price this time last year.

New Cargo Security Demands to Hit Consumers Hard
New security laws that require cargo containers bound for the U.S. to be scanned for radiation or weapons could hit consumers hard, AFP (via IndustryWeek) reports a senior customs official as having said last week.

The measures, which Congress has demanded must enter force in 2012, will oblige countries to scan every one of the estimated 18 million U.S.-bound cargo containers each year before they leave their port of departure.

GM and Ford Shares Hit New Lows
"Shares of General Motors Corp. plunged to their lowest price in more than 33 years, and Ford shares hit another 52-week low Thursday as analysts continued to speculate about just how bad things will get for U.S.-based automakers," the Associated Press reports.

GM shares fell 10.8 percent, tying the low reached on Dec. 30, 1974, according to the University of Chicago's Center for Research in Security Prices. Ford shares hit a 52-week low in early trading before recovering, closing down 3.2 percent.



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