Expect a Longer, But Less Severe Downturn
The economic downturn "may not be as severe as we feared, but it's probably not going to be as short as we had hoped," according to one JPMorgan economist. "Reflecting that assessment, JPMorgan raised its first-half GDP forecast from a 0.5 percent decline, at an annual rate, to a 0.35 percent increase," in The Australian reports. "At the same time, it shaved its second-half-growth forecast by one full percentage point to 1.25 percent."

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, told Reuters (via The San Diego Union-Tribune) its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 132.1 in the week to April 18 from 132 the prior week. "The uptick was due to higher stock prices and lower jobless claims." These figures "still point to a U.S. economy in recession," the research group said.

Fed to Cut Rates This Week?
"Two days ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting this week, the widely shared consensus is that the Fed is likely to cut its benchmark short-term interest rate to 2 percent from 2.25 percent, signaling that while financial markets have stabilized somewhat, concerns about an American economic downturn remain paramount," The New York Times reports today.

New Orders Fall
New orders for manufactured durable goods (MDG) last month decreased $0.7 billion, or 0.3 percent, to $212.2 billion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. This was the third consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 0.9 percent February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.

Shipments of MDG in March decreased $0.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $210.1 billion. This followed a 2.6 percent February decrease. Shipments have been down four of the last five months.

Unfilled orders for MDG in March increased $7.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $830.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.0 percent February increase. Unfulfilled orders have been up 34 of the last 35 months.

Inventories of MDG in March increased $3.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $327.1 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent February increase. Inventories have been up eight of the last nine months.

Boeing Boom
Strong commercial-aircraft sales profit boosted productivity and operating profit margins at Boeing Co., which posted a 38 percent jump in first-quarter profit. For the quarter, the Chicago-based aerospace manufacturer said net earnings rose to $1.21 billion, from $877 million in the year-ago period, MarketWatch reports. The builder of commercial and military aircraft, as well as rockets and military defense systems, said total revenue jumped 6 percent to $16 billion from $15.4 billion last year. Boeing surpassed Wall Street's earnings expectations, despite the company's troubled 787 program and the loss of a $35 billion contract.

Oil Prices Remain Volatile
On Friday, oil prices jumped more than $2 to above $118 a barrel on supply disruptions in Nigeria and the North Sea and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran, Reuters reports. U.S. crude futures settled $2.46 higher at $118.52 a barrel, after hitting $119.55 in earlier activity, near the all-time peak of $119.90 reached on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, two oil exploration companies recently said the discovery of an estimated three billion barrels of oil is set to propel Ghana into the league of the big African oil producers when production starts in 2010, according to a report at AllAfrica.com. But on Friday, the price edged up again to $119 a barrel. Today, it was seven cents short of $120 a barrel.

Gas and Oil Prices to Double by 2010
As oil surged to new highs last week, CIBC World Markets analysts posited that crude prices could surge to $150 a barrel by 2010 and could surpass $200 a barrel in four years, pushing gasoline prices to as high as $7 a gallon. As noted by Canada's Financial Post, the forecast goes against many strategists that expect slower global and U.S. economic growth to drag oil prices back below $100 a barrel this year.

Unemployment Rate Begins Falling
In the week ending April 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 342,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 375,000, the U.S. Department of Labor reports. The four-week moving average was 369,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,750. But, the nation's unemployment rate has been 5.1 percent recently.

Meanwhile, the April 2008 Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumers determined that just over half of all consumers expect the unemployment rate to steadily increase during the year ahead, rising to 6 percent by the start of 2009.

Most Wanted: Engineers
Manpower has released its latest annual list of the 10 hardest jobs to fill, based on a survey of 2,000 American employers. The 10 Hardest Jobs to Fill, as reported by U.S. employers for 2008, are as follows:

1) Engineers;
2) Machinists and machine operators;
3) Skilled manual trades;
4) Technicians;
5) Sales representatives;
6) Accounting and finance staff;
7) Mechanics;
8) Laborers;
9) IT staff; and
10) Production operators.

The survey results coincide with the publication of the Manpower white paper Confronting the Talent Crunch: 2008.

Planners Propose Largest Solar Farm for Calif.
"Stealth Bay Area solar startup OptiSolar has quietly revealed plans to build the world's largest photovoltaic solar farm on the central California coast — a $1 billion, 550-megawatt monster that would be nearly 40 times as large as the biggest such power plant operating today," according to Fortune's Green Wombat blog (via CNN.com Money).

The startup says its solar farm would generate electricity for about 190,000 homes. If approved by San Luis Obispo County, construction would begin in 2010.

Customers Want More Railroads
The chief executive of the Union Pacific Corporation recently said every one of his customers wants to know what the company is doing to expand its capacity because they're interested in shipping more by rail, the Associated Press reports (via NYT). Union Pacific reported a 10 percent increase in agricultural carloads during the quarter and a 6 percent increase in energy carloads. The growth in those two sectors balanced out declines in automotive, industrial and intermodal shipping volume.

Union Pacific said Thursday its net income jumped 15 percent in the first quarter because price increases and fuel surcharges helped increase revenue even as shipping volume remained flat. The company, based in Omaha, said it earned $443 million, up from $386 million a year earlier. The company said revenue rose 11 percent, to $4.27 billion.