In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 378,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 356,000, according to the United States Department of Labor’s latest numbers. The four-week moving average was 365,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 359,250.

Earlier in 2008, employers had laid off the most workers in four years.

Moving forward this year, U.S. employers anticipate a decline in hiring for the second quarter of 2008, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

Of the 14,000 U.S. employers surveyed by Manpower Inc., 26 percent said they expect to increase their workforces during Q2 2008, while 9 percent expect to reduce staff levels. Sixty percent expect no change in the hiring pace, and 5 percent are undecided about their April-June hiring plans.

Today, the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and the Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations published its latest collaborative SHRM/Rutgers Leading Indicator of National Employment (LINE).

The SHRM-Rutgers report determined that employment expectations, not surprising, are down: new-hire compensation growth is slowing, and recruiting difficulty is at its lowest level in years.

“Similar to last month, the labor market in April 2008 will remain soft and will be much weaker than it was in April 2007,” according to the report. “Employment expectations for April 2008 are down sharply in both the manufacturing and service sectors.”

Employment Expectations Down
The LINE employment expectations index provides an early indication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers that are released approximately five weeks later. Compared to April 2007, this index dropped 10.7 points for manufacturing and 12.6 points for the service sector in April 2008, indicating that far fewer new hires will be made in April.

The primary source of the drop in both the manufacturing and service sectors is the drop in the percentage of organizations with increasing employment expectations; a much smaller rise was observed in the percentage of organizations with decreasing employment expectations.

New-Hire Compensation Growth Slows
The rate of compensation growth increased modestly within the manufacturing sector, from 5.5 in March 2007 to 8.7 in March 2008. Within the much larger service sector, however, it fell to its lowest level since the series was initiated in May 2005.

This is in line with the slower employment growth expected in April, particularly for the service sector. Compensation (wages plus benefits) tends to rise during periods of economic expansion. These cyclical increases often appear first in the compensation offered to new hires. The hiring process forces firms to more rapidly adjust these compensation levels to the current labor market conditions.

Recruiting Difficulty at Lowest Level in Years
The recruiting difficulty indices for manufacturing and service sectors are at the lowest March level since each series was initiated in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

While the percentage of firms in both sectors that believe recruiting is getting more difficult remains substantially larger than the percentage of firms that think it is getting easier, the March 2008 recruiting difficulty index for manufacturing dropped substantially from March 2007. In the service sector, the recruiting difficulty index fell less dramatically over the same time
period.

Yet some sources point to select industries as being poised for growth.

While Manpower’s survey results increased employer hesitation in adding staff, some industries — including services, transportation/public utilities and mining — appear to be staged for growth opportunities.

And according to a study released last month by automotive-research firm the Center for Automotive Research (CAP), America’s automakers are about to go on a hiring spree, adding 77,000 new workers to the payroll by 2016.

Two central conclusions of CAP’s 2007-2016 forecast: There will be considerable hiring in the U.S. and Michigan automotive industries, and total U.S. automaker employment will not decrease.

Newsweek.com explains the logic this way:

Detroit is on an unprecedented buyout binge. At GM alone, 34,000 workers have walked out the door in the last 10 months (20,000 left in one day, on Jan. 2, 2007). GM, Ford and Chrysler are now offering virtually all of their 166,575 blue-collar workers buyouts of up to $140,000 or lucrative early retirement packages. Deadlines to decide are coming soon, and before it’s all over, another 34,000 workers will head for the exits. At some factories, more than half the staff is expected to take the buyout. That will leave too few workers behind to keep the cars rolling down the assembly lines.

Hundreds of plant workers at each automaker’s plants will have to be replaced — by cheaper workers. The workers who are leaving due to buyouts cost the automakers $78.21 an hour (including benefits), while those who replace them will cost an average of $25.65 an hour.

That’s why automakers anticipate hiring 77,000 new cheaper workers over the next eight years — while eliminating 115,000 high-wage earners.

Recent: Hiring to Hit Downturn in 2008