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January 8, 2008
The 12 Big Stories of 2007
From the rise of the global middle class to poisoned pets to a real-world material described by Scotty in Star Trek IV, here is IMT's rundown of some of the most notable developments of 2007.
A look at some of the top news stories, trends and issues over the past year. . .
Rise of the Middle Class
The continued rise of the global middle class is as big a story as they come. A growing middle class has been emerging in China, India, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil, among other product-consuming places around the globe.
Insight Bureau expects the middle class in China alone to grow from 100 million people in 2005 to 200 million people by 2010, reaching 315 million by 2015.
With so much added wealth and disposable income around the world, there is money to be made from making and selling premium goods.
Tragedy on the Mississippi
In August, the collapse of the Interstate 35W bridge into the Mississippi River killed 13 people and injured more than 100, and the fallout will no doubt last for years. It touched Minnesota's bureaucracy and politics, prompting country-wide questions about inspections, budget priorities and the nation’s brittle infrastructure.
A new bridge spanning the Mississippi River is under construction and expected to be ready by the end of 2008.
The Difference in a Word
Earlier in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Fourth Assessment Report to guide policymakers about global warming and its impacts. Hundreds of NASA scientists contributed to the United Nations effort, working with thousands of their colleagues from more than 150 countries. In the report, the UN panel states that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and that “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
Footnotes indicate very likely and likely, meaning “the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment,” are over 90 percent and 66 percent, respectively.
Later in the year, the IPCC was co-awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former United States Vice President (and Oscar winner) Al Gore, lauded for his campaigning on climate change.
Green Is Everywhere
Consumers. businesses and industries are latching on to environmental friendliness. According to a November survey by PR firm Edelman, 78 percent of the 5,600+ participants from nine countries like to buy brands that have an eco-conscience. Wal-Mart, Honda, Tesco, Hewlett-Packard and S.C. Johnson all got in on the act. Because sustainability has become a fierce competitive issue for certain sectors, businesses going green will likely increase notably during 2008 and in the years beyond.
Yet as demand for environmentally preferable purchasing increases, “greenwashing” — the practice of misleading purchasers about the environmental benefits of a product or service — has reemerged as a key concern.
China-U.S. Trade Relations
As of mid-December, the U.S. trade imbalance with China was running at an annual rate of $256 billion, on track to surpass 2006’s record high of $233 billion, which is greater than in any other country. The final tally was expected to reach $260 billion by the end of 2007.
And the continual harping on this fact has led to, let’s say, “strained” relations between the two countries. China recently said constant U.S. criticism over trade disputes was hurting economic ties. The inclination to politicize trade restrictions, currency issues and intellectual-property abuses has increased, as have protectionist measures. U.S. lawmakers have introduced a spate of bills that could lead to new legislation targeting alleged unfair Chinese trade practices, amid the ever-expanding trade imbalance between the two sides. (See today's Recommended Reading)
Yet the world powers have agreed at top-level talks to cooperate on improving the safety of Chinese exports.
Kids and Pets Poisoned
When historians look at back on 2007, they could characterize it as the year that product safety received the focus it has always deserved. Unfortunately, it has come at both the cost of consumer anxiety and a significant hit to business brands, design and manufacturing processes. The pet-food ingredients were cheaper, but they were tainted, killing upward of thousands of pets. Then came counterfeit toothpaste with an antifreeze ingredient, lead-laced toys played with by millions of kids and Aqua Dots that metabolized into the date-rape drug GHB.
In August, the Chinese government declared a four-month “special war” against poor product quality and lack of supervision.
The good news for consumers (and not so good for Chinese factories): The wave of recalls in the U.S. and Europe prompted the Chinese government and foreign buyers to impose stringent quality checks. Costs for quality control have rocketed by at least 500 percent since the high-profile recalls began last June, according to Lawrence Chan, chairman of the Hong Kong Toys Council (source: Agence France-Presse via IndustryWeek). This, coupled with the rising cost of labor and raw materials amid surging oil prices, is expected to push total production costs in 2008 up by 15 percent year-on-year.
Sky-High Energy Prices
In the first three quarters of 2007, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaged around $65 a barrel. As we hit the home stretch of 2007, sharp increases in crude oil prices continued and put renewed pressure on economies. Crude oil for December delivery climbed to a record $98 a barrel. Last week, oil prices hit the symbolic level of $100 a barrel, a long-awaited milestone.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest inflation report (12/14/07):
Thus far [in 2007], energy costs have risen at an 11.7 percent SAAR [seasonally adjusted annual rate] after increasing 2.9 percent in all of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, petroleum-based energy costs (energy commodities) advanced at a 20.6 percent rate and charges for energy services (gas and electricity) increased at a 1.3 percent rate.
To make matters worse, high oil prices doubled shipping costs in the last year. Companies continued to increase their product prices due to persistently high raw material costs, which has continued to pressure and depress the overall economic outlook.
Commodities prices continue to be somewhat seasonal, fluctuating in predictable patterns, yet they are also continually increasing on a multi-year basis. If energy prices continue their spiral of excessiveness, it could push chemicals, plastics and some metals ever higher.
American Plastics Assets Shift to Mideast
“One of the most stunning materials stories on 2007 has been the transfer of American plastics assets to oil powers in the Mideast,” says Design News.
There was the acquisition of the iconic GE Plastics business by the Saudi Basic Industries Corp. Then came Dow’s decision to sell half of key plastics businesses for $9.5 billion to the Kuwait Petroleum Corp.
GE’s corporate outlook is already looking better, and, according to Design News, we can expect “a healthier, trimmed-down Dow in 2008.”
Plastic Steel
In a particularly impressive scientific breakthrough of 2007, engineering researchers at the University of Michigan created a composite plastic that is as strong as steel but lighter and transparent. Dubbed “plastic steel” by engineering professor Nicholas Kotov, the material is made of layers of clay nano-sheets and a water-soluble polymer that shares chemistry with white glue.
In the Oct. 5 issue of Science, Kotov and other Univ. of Michigan faculty members showed how the earthen material is made up of phenomenally strong nanometer-sized particles. When arranged neatly between thin layers of a sticky but weak plastic, tiny bits of dirt act as the ultimate reinforcements giving the ordinary material extraordinary strength.
Further development of the sturdy composite — which resembles "transparent aluminum,” the fantastic substance described by Scotty in Star Trek IV — could lead to lighter, stronger armor or lightweight aircraft, as well as use in micro-electro-mechanical devices, micro-fluidics, biomedical sensors and valves and unmanned aircraft.
Wrinkles in Boeing’s Dreamliner Supply Chain
Throughout the past year, Boeing faced a number of struggles related to the scheduled launch of its Dreamliner 787 aircraft. Problems in the schedule were first acknowledged early in 2007, when delays in the supply of a variety of fasteners were cited by a variety of company sources and then finally by CEO Jim McNerney as causing schedule problems.
In December, Boeing said it was still working through problems in the supply chain for its new plane, as there remain “significant supply-chain wrinkles.” Fortunately, parts shortages are receding and the fasteners needed to assemble the aircraft are more available.
Boeing has confirmed it will deliver the first 787 Dreamliner in November or December 2008, following a maiden flight early in the year. The announcement came after the company, in October, knocked backed the 787 schedule by six months due to production difficulties.
Auto Workers Strike
More than 74,000 General Motors workers went on a two-day strike in late September after the United Auto Workers (UAW) and GM failed to reach a contract agreement. The national strike was GM’s first since 1970. Two days later, the UAW and GM reached a historic tentative contract agreement, which puts the responsibility for retiree health care into the union’s hands and establishes a lower pay scale for thousands of workers.
The following month, the UAW reached a temporary contract agreement with Chrysler after a six-hour strike. In November, Chrysler said it would cut 8,500-10,000 hourly jobs and 2,100 salaried jobs through 2008, or about 15 percent of its workforce, in addition to the 13,000 layoffs it announced in February.
Then, the month after that, the UAW said 81 percent of Ford production workers ratified a new four-year contract with the automaker, ending negotiations between the UAW and Detroit’s Used-to-Be-Big Three.
Toyota Beats GM for the First Time, Overtakes Ford
For the first time, Toyota Motor Corp. beat out GM in global sales in the first quarter of last year, selling 2.35 million units against GM’s 2.26 million units. GM, Ford and Chrysler’s share of the U.S. market dropped below 50 percent in July for the first time in history.
It was announced last week that Toyota overtook Ford to become the No. 2 automaker by U.S. sales in 2007. According to sales figures released Thursday, the Japanese automaker sold 2.62 million cars and trucks in 2007, which amounted to 48,226 more than Ford, which has been burned by weaker product rollouts and aggressive discounts in the pickup-truck segment. Meanwhile, GM remained the U.S. sales leader, selling 3.82 million vehicles in 2007 — down 6 percent from the previous year. Globally, however, Toyota is poised to displace GM as the industry leader.
When all the sales figures come in, 2007 is anticipated to reflect the worst year in almost a decade for auto sales.
Are there any other big stories that you think helped shape 2007? Let us know in the comments below.
Earlier:
Design and Replacement: Of the Collapsed Minneapolis Bridge
China Declares War on Dangerous Products
Highlights and Lowlights of Tentative UAW-GM Contract
Toyota to Supplant GM as World's Top Automaker? It's Happening It's Happened
Auto Industry: Revved Up or Broke Down?
References
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
Chinese Toy Factories Under Threat
by Agence France-Presse (via IndustryWeek), Jan. 4, 2008
WTI Crude Oil Posted Price
OilEnergy.com, Jan. 3, 2008
Crude Oil Surges to Record $98 a Barrel in After Hours
by Chris Oliver
MarketWatch, Nov. 6, 2007
Engineering Materials
by Doug Smock
Design News, Dec. 15, 2007
Saudi Basic Industries Completes Purchase of GE Plastics
by International Organization on Shape Memory and Superelastic Technologies
ASM International, Sept. 1, 2007
Dow Chemical Creating $11 Billion Venture with Kuwait
by Steve Gelsi and Christopher Hinton
MarketWatch, Dec. 13, 2007
Ultrastrong and Stiff Layered Polymer Nanocomposites
by Paul Podsiadlo, Amit K. Kaushik, Ellen M. Arruda, Anthony M. Waas, Bong Sup Shim, Jiadi Xu, Himabindu Nandivada, Benjamin G. Pumplin, Joerg Lahann, Ayyalusamy Ramamoorthy, Nicholas A. Kotov
Science Magazine, Oct. 5, 2007
Toyota Overtakes Ford in US Market
by Dee-Ann Durbin
The Associated Press, Jan. 3, 2008
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Comment
3 CommentsAt risk of being labeled racist or predudice, I can not help but notice that the surely cutting edge R&D from the Univ. of Michigan in the development of "plastic steel", was credited to people whose surnames would indicate they are not the typical western European ancestory that we commonly assume makes up our country. These seemingly exceptional scientists would seem to be a cross section of the world at large.
US born, naturalized citizen, here for educational reasons or on work permit, how can we not realize that lawful immigration of the best and brightest is necessary if we are to lead the world in any fashion. It is great for the state of Michigan as it demonstrates that backwardness in R&D only resides in automotive Detroit! The possibilites of this material's applications are only limited by one imagination and its down stream effects are even more impressive. This kind of work is worth real praise and was lead by a scientist, not an engineer, with a PhD in chemistry from Moscow State University!
January 8, 2008 1:40 PMWhy in your 12 big stories you do not mention Oil prices? The book "Energy Victory" by Robert Zubrin lays it on OPEC and Saudi Arabia about the price of oil and their scandalous price gouging to finance terrorism. Nobody is talking about it, what's going on? Please comment or respond. Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingram, all are quiet, you don't mention it??
January 16, 2008 8:50 PMNolan-
You're right, energy prices (including oil) played a huge part in the scope of 2007. And it continues to be a major issue in '08. We not only mentioned it in the story above, we dedicated an item on just that topic. See the seventh item down, "Sky-High Energy Prices."
Hope that helps. . .
-David
January 17, 2008 12:50 PM




