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November 20, 2007
Economic Roundup: Still Pessimistic
The Federal Reserve's recent warnings of an economic slowdown had small-business owners cutting back on hiring and spending plans, while bad weather and rising gas prices in recent months have prompted a late start to the holiday shopping season. Here's a look at recent weeks' economic developments and how they're affecting small businesses.
Optimism
Due in no small part to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, optimism about the United States economy among small-business owners declined last month. The Fed's interest cut was intended to aid the economy, but instead it triggered cutbacks in spending and hiring, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) last week.
Following the Sept. 18 interest rate cut, the index of small business optimism slipped 1.1 points to 96.2 last month, NFIB reports.
Federal Reserve System Chairman Ben S. Bernanke "gave us a flu shot, and now we got it," William Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said in a recent Reuters report. "Now we are showing symptoms, cutting our spending, cutting our hiring and it's supposed to keep us from doing that."
Fewer owners are planning to increase employment or capital spending in the months ahead. Overall, only three of 10 index components improved in October, including plans to raise inventories, expected credit conditions and earnings trends.
Jobless Claims
In the week ending Nov. 10, new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 339,000, according to the Labor Department. That is an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 319,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged the previous week at 1.9 percent, with 2.568 million people filing claims. The biggest gains in new claims were in Michigan, North Carolina and Iowa; the biggest decreases were in Kentucky, Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
Retail Sales
Stores have struggled with bad weather and rising gas prices in recent months, prompting a late start to the holiday shopping season, according to the National Retail Federation.
In October alone, total retail sales grew by a mere 0.2 percent from the previous month, down from 0.7 percent the previous month, the Commerce Department reported last week (via Forbes).
Sales of building materials, gas and clothing picked up.
Last week, the Labor Department reported a 0.3 percent gain in consumer prices, led by the sharpest increase in energy prices since May.
Gas Prices
"The biggest jump in gasoline prices in five months contributed to another elevated reading on consumer prices in October," reports The Associated Press. "Average gas prices continued to climb last week, surging by 9.8 cents to $3.111 per gallon the highest ever for this time of year," the Energy Information Administration reported last week. Gains were reported in every region.
With pump prices surging still, inflation is expected to be even worse in November.
See also: Dark Days for Small Businesses
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