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October 25, 2005
Hybrid-Auto Production Jumps
Hybrid vehicles still represent less than one percent of the U.S. market, but recent signs show they are on the rise. Some analysts have said that that one percent could grow to as much as 35 percent by 2015. (Others, of course, have been more conservative.)
On Oct. 12, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy issued a U.S. government list of the ten most fuel-efficient 2006 model vehicles. Merely one gasoline-only car made the list, signifying a forthcoming jump in the hybrid trend.
Last month Ford said it would increase hybrid production tenfold, to 250,000 hybrids per year by 2010, as reported by both Forbes and the New York Times. About half of the models at Ford and its Lincoln and Mercury subsidiaries will have hybrid versions available.
This while Associated Press last month acknowledged that, "Toyota Motor Corp. remains the runaway leader in the field," having sold 53,761 Prius hybrid cars in the United States last year, and the model's sales were up 133 percent in the first eight months of this year.
As such, it seems all major mainstream automakers are taking heed, hurrying to prepare hybrids for market.
Volkswagen AG, Audi AG and Porsche AG recently said they were forming an alliance to develop hybrid engines; BMW AG recently joined General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler AG in a similar partnership; and Mazda presented new hybrid vehicles including a compact van and a sports car at the Tokyo Motor Show from Oct. 21 to Nov. 6 (as of this writing).
The basic idea of the hybrid vehicle, and the way in which it has been touted, is to get the most fuel economy out of a smaller engine. "The cars achieve unbeatable gas mileage and are 80 percent cleaner than regular cars," noted Forbes. "They consume less gas, and they produce fewer emissions."
However, detractors still emphasize that the trend is based on unwarranted hype. Not all automakers are for going hybrid.
As CNN/Money recently reported, "with gasoline prices now around $3 a gallon, you might think it makes a lot of sense that hybrid cars are hot sellers. Actually, it doesn't — at least not a lot of financial sense [...] If you want to save money because of rising gas prices, you're heading down the wrong road, at least for now."
Current hybrid-engine-wielding cars tend to cost between $4,000 to $9,000 more than their counterparts with regular engines under the hood, according to AP. As well, hybrids' fuel-economy benefits may be visible only to a select group of drivers, according to the Forbes feature. While most cars have better mileage on the highway than in the city, hybrids are frequently the opposite, delivering their best results in stop-and-go traffic, because their engines can shut off at stops.
Forbes pointed out that some automakers are finding hybrids "will have smaller profit margins than regular cars — if they make money at all — until their development costs decrease." An example: Toyota's Prius debuted in 1997 — it did not break even until just before the introduction of a second-generation car in model-year 2004.
"Consumer backlash against hybrids has also taken several forms. Lofty mileage estimates have, in many cases, seemed unrealistically high to hybrid owners who cannot reproduce optimal fuel economy with typical driving patterns. Lead feet and air conditioning, for example, can decrease a hybrid's mileage."
Although there are still a number of noted critics, it appears that the mainstream automakers are pushing to offer the hybrid option to consumers; and that the trend of purchasing and flaunting hybrid cars is picking up — it's not just Tom Cruise flaunting his vehicle on Jay Leno. Soon, according to analysts and automakers, there will be more hybrid vehicles from which to choose.
The following is a recap of the hybrid vehicle's touted pros and cons, taken from both About.com and Wikipedia.
Pros:
• Because fewer batteries are needed, hybrids are usually lighter and roomier than purely electric vehicles of comparable size and power (batteries store less energy per unit mass and per unit volume than does gasoline);
• The internal-combustion engine in a hybrid vehicle is smaller, lighter and more efficient than found in a conventional vehicle;
• Braking in a hybrid is controlled in part by the electric motor, which can recapture part of the kinetic energy of the car to partially recharge the batteries (i.e., regenerative braking);
• Government agencies offer various incentives to hybrid owners, incentives such as tax deductions, tax credits, free tolls, smog-inspection exemption;
• Mileage is noticeably higher, anywhere from 8 percent-10 percent or 2-3 mpg; and
• Less guilt regarding environmental pollution, as hybrids emit up to 97 percent less toxic emissions and half as much greenhouse-causing carbon dioxide as the average car.
Cons:
• There are added registration fees in some states;
• They cost more — anywhere from $2,000 to $5,000 more the non-hybrid counterpart;
• Parts may cost more and may not be as readily available as typical car parts;
• Special high-mileage tires are smaller, but they cost more to replace;
• The acceleration capability of some hybrids — though not all — is less than that of comparable vehicles; and
• High-performance electric motors are not yet available in Hybrid vehicles, whose emphasis is on economy, not speed. (However, they're getting better each year.)
Resources
Hybrid buyer's guide
Dan Lienert
Forbes, Oct. 12, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9664955/
In the Hybrid's Wake, Trying to Catch Up
James Brooke
New York Times, Oct. 20, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/20/business/worldbusiness/20hybrid.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1129816908-CRT5unFFtjP9z3h5u5ZzPA
World's automakers embracing hybrid vehicles
Associated Press, Sept. 14, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9338664
GM to globally launch hybrid vehicle in future
Kyodo News
Fuel Cell Today, Oct. 18, 2005
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellToday/IndustryInformation/IndustryInformationExternal/NewsDisplayArticle/0,4527,6659,00.html
New hybrid studies from Mazda
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)
Fuel Cell Today, Oct. 18, 2005
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellToday/IndustryInformation/IndustryInformationExternal/NewsDisplayArticle/0,4527,6658,00.html
Hybrids: Don't buy the hype
Peter Valdes-Dapena
CNN/Money, Sept. 26, 2005
http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/23/Autos/hybrid_alternatives/
4-Wheel Drive / Offroading
Jim Walczak
About.com
http://4wheeldrive.about.com/cs/buyacaronline/a/hybridcarstruck_2.htm
Wikipedia
def: "Hybrid vehicle"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Automobile
Additional
He Said, She Said: Hybrids vs. Fuel Cells
Mark Devlin
ThomasNet Industrial Market Trends, Feb. 25, 2005
http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/archives/2005/02/he_said_she_sai_1.html
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28 CommentsI'm all for the hybrid car concept and what they do for the environment. However, when are they going to stop making them so funny looking and make them look like regular cars???
October 25, 2005 1:07 PMWhat about the cost of replacing the batteries, or do they last forever?
October 25, 2005 1:43 PMFrom what I've heard from our car dealer, he makes the majority of his profit from his service department. Profits from service will be the clincher in future expansion of hybrids in my opinion, even if it's just the battery. Synthetic lubricants in hybrids would make that aspect almost a non-issue. Using them in non-hybrid vehicles now shows reduced operation and maintenance expenses and reduced emissions, pollution and environmental impact.
October 25, 2005 1:46 PMThe real problem for hybrid evolution is industry and not technology. There have been significant usage of hybrid technology since World War II; submarines were essentially hybrid systems. Electric diesel power has a case history spanning at least 70 years.
Small engine or system use is better developed than is generally realized. Systems for consumer use have been delayed by the conservativeness of the auto industry and the disinsentives fostered by a risk adverse financial industry. Our foundation is no longer industrial it is financial; money people are no great supporters of new ideas or methods. It is a wonder any progress occurs with the prevailing attitudes on Wall Street and in the board rooms. The era of companies run by the specialists ended long ago. Industry is now directed by enterprise politicians who gain their positions through corporate power games. Generally they don't have the same needs as the average consumer and basically don't quite live in the same world.
I've spent the last two years attempting to study hybrid technology. Most of the useful information is closely held by corporations. Even goverment funded studies are difficult to access since the studies are generally run in partnership with industry. What has always astounded me about the information age is how little information actually trickles down. Somewhere out there, sitting on shelves, are the parts necessary to build hybrid vehicles. The only way hybrid technology will suceed is through efforts of DIY advocates. Invention, adaptation, and application is still the realm of the individual, not the corporations. When information and materials become more widely available, the garage inventor will flourish and hybrid technology will propagate.
October 25, 2005 4:21 PMThere is a $10,000 added price to the Ford Escape Hybrid. There is no way the savings will meet this increased price. Also as mentioned, what about the "repair bill"? when it breaks, and it will break.
The in city has increased to 35 miles per Gal, while the highway is only 3 to 5 miles better than the Escape I now drive.
When are they really going to come up with another Diesel that will give great milage with it being an alternative fuel? My husband's JETTA GETS 48 MILES PER GAL. Years ago we had several Chevette Diesels and we got from 45 to 55 miles per gal. Unfortunately none of these Chevy products are around any longer.
Why is the price of Diesel for roads a dollar more than regular gas? Diesel's refining is much less expensive.
What about the man in New York who was getting 75 miles to a gal. with his Olds?? He was supposed to be on the Hannagan Show a short while ago. Am I asking for trouble by asking these questions???
There also are supposid cancer treatments in the alternative medical area that work better than Chemo or Radiation. No pattent, Not so great profit, No facts, No truths. Yet, research in being done all over the world, not in the US.
MONEY< MONEY< MONEY, BIG MONEY.
October 26, 2005 12:50 AMTwo years ago, when I bought my Honda hybrid, I did it knowing that I would pay a premium for this relatively new technology. I happily paid the approximately $3000 extra because I believed (and still do) that our country was too dependant on unstable and unsavory mid-east oil producers. I decided to put my money behind my words.
October 26, 2005 10:08 AMAs an associate of Honda of America Manufacturing, I will gladly point out that Honda's cumulative Hybrid sales have exceeded 100,000. Most of that in the last 18 months.
At this point I will agree that the premium you pay for the cars will not be paid back by the savings, but that will change. However, you can take advantage of the strong market to recoup much of your premium when you sell the car.
October 26, 2005 1:20 PMVery interesting article. I have been considering buying a hybrid car. The article pointed things I was not aware of on the con side. Thanks!
October 27, 2005 8:05 AMThe hybrids have issues that are not being looked at:
Battery replacement costs are around $6,000.00. Toyota claims they last a 'life time' but do not define the actual time.
There are two drive trains on most. This means that as mileage accumulates, the costs of repair and maintenance will be greater.
These things will probably be dogs on the used market when the public learns of battery costs and maintenance costs.
Someone is going to get hurt when there is an accidental electrocution at the scene of an accident.
When the EPA and 'greenies' take a look at battery disposal, they may change their story. Or the disposal costs will become another added cost issue. These batteries have environmentally unfriendly components and chemicals.
Given the European experience with clean diesels, the excellent mileage and the soon-coming change to cleaner diesel fuel here, I suspect that diesels are a far better short-term answer to reducing consumption. There's also bio-diesel to consider as it's renewable and non-toxic.
The likely best solution is nuclear generation of power to produce (reduce) hydrogen, then power cars and trucks with fuel cells.
Then we have safety issues. Hybrids have high voltage issues. Fuel cells and other uses of hydrogen need to address integrity of the containment in accidents. (I worked on the Apollo program. The fuel cell explosion is what caused the problem with Apollo. While hydrogen is blamed, it was the oxygen tank that blew. The issue is tank integrity and a seemingly small malfunction had an adverse effect.)
Bottom line: Hybrids are a band aid, not a fix.
October 27, 2005 9:45 AMI drive a 2004 Chevy Cavalier. It's standard model with a five speed, CD player and AC. If I drive 50 mph with the AC off, I get better than 37 mpg, which is better than most hybrids. I drive to work on the inner state, inner belt, and local streets with some stop-and-go on all of them during rush hour. It's got plenty of power with the 5 speed and I think it will beat my 200 hp Camaro off the line. I'm not going to be looking for a hybrid for a while.
October 27, 2005 4:13 PMSince hybrids are just coming of age, most people use them harder than a regular car. In the next 10 years, with the changes that are coming, you will forget all about hybrids.
October 27, 2005 7:52 PMTwo years ago I also put my money where my mouth is and purchased a Honda civic hybrid. I have learned how to get optimal mileage for my vehicle, and overall I average 40+ miles on every tank. It's just a matter of managing your driving style to suit the way the car runs. My experience with this car has been great. Now the caviat. You can buy a regular Civic for $3,000 less and get 35-38 MPG. I am not an enviromentalist by any stretch of the imagination, but I believe we need to take whatever control we can over our energy needs. Time is running out on us.
October 28, 2005 3:06 PMThumbs Up For Hybrids! Wherever we can $ave on fuel costs, I am all for it!!
We just launched our BioPerformance Fuel Corporation on 12-08-05 with a product we like to call The "TOP" Secret Gas Pill and, by using our Fuel Pill, people are $aving on avg 25-50 cents or more per gallon of gas or diesel. Our distributor network has grown to over 9,000 independent business owners in 8 weeks!!!
http://www.bioperformancefuelusa.com
All The Best,
Brent Mann
"Founding Leader"
Just in case other people like me find this entry on Google:
There are now more and more 'powerful' hybrids available and lots of other information. Feel free to use this jumping off point for more info!
April 5, 2006 9:02 PM
