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October 25, 2005
Blowing Up Robots
The worldwide market for industrial and service robots is forecast to be worth more than $66 billion by 2025, while analysts estimate that about four million household robots will ship in 2007. Both output of robots and the attention paid them appear to be blowing up.
Last year, according to BBC coverage this month, a United Nations annual World Robotics report said that 4.1 million robots would be doing jobs in homes by the end of 2007. It also projected that there would be almost 2.5 million entertainment and "leisure" robots in homes by then, compared to about 137,000 currently.
The manufacturing industry, of course, routinely uses robots, many of which are built by car manufacturers such as Honda and Toyota. And seemingly every week reports a new way that a robot is taking up a human task: nursing robots; dancing-/singing-dog robots; soccer-playing robots; and even day care robots. The commercial world in September even saw the release of a Hobbit-sized "house sitter" robot that can recognize 10,000 words and 10 different faces.
Findings released by industry trade group Robotic Industries Association (RIA) gleaned that "North American robotics suppliers saw orders leap 36 percent in the first half of 2005, putting the industry on pace for a record year," as 10,712 robots were ordered by North American companies through June. Overall sales for North American robot suppliers totaled $673.1 million in the first half of this year.
Although RIA does not track non-manufacturing robot applications, according to Donald A. Vincent, executive vice president of RIA, "robotics technology is gaining traction outside of the factory as well." In the announcement, Vincent said, "From outer space to hospital rooms to living rooms, robots are playing a larger role than ever, and we expect to see this trend continue."
Another large wave of further robot commercialization and innovation has potential to spring forth from two big robot events this month. Five autonomous vehicles crossed the finish line on Oct. 8 in the second annual DARPA Grand Challenge, sponsored by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The robotic trucks, built by 23 teams from academia and industry, competed over a Mojave Desert course of 176 kilometers, with a team from Stanford University taking the $2 million prize. (The race's official Web site, which tracked the progress of the vehicles, also drew more than 12 million hits in eight hours, according to a New York Times feature.)
Meanwhile, 10,000 people gathered on Oct. 6-9 in San Jose, CA, for the RoboNexus convention, an expo event that featured a two-time autonomous RoboSoccer champ, and PARO, a robot in the shape of a seal, according to San Jose's Mercury News.
Technology Review also reported, "With the announcement of a $115 million IPO by Burlington, MA-based iRobot, companies commercializing robot technology are beginning to attract venture capitalists' attention." iRobot is considered "the breakaway leader in the commercial robots market," having shipped more than 1.2 million robotic vacuum cleaners. "iRobots has also launched a robotic mop, and it has a line of costly military-grade robots."
Zoom Systems, another robot company, "raised $12 million last month, in a funding round led by NeoCarta Ventures. The company makes and operates robotic kiosks often located in hotels and airports, which function as automated convenience stores."
As well, in health care, robotics startup InTouch Technology recently raised $12.1 million in a Series C round led by Galen Partners. "The company is creating remote-presence robots that allow busy doctors to do virtual consultations. To offset a growing nursing shortage, the company is also developing 1.6-meter-tall robots that help nurses provide care to several patients at a time. About a dozen hospitals are currently using the robots, generally for routine discharge procedures."
As for industrial robots, another RIA report found that material handling, which is the largest robotics application, in 2005's first quarter posted a 67 percent gain over 2004's first-quarter results. Arc welding applications jumped 76 percent and coating/dispensing orders rose 49 percent.
According to an article in Oct. 11's Financial Times, "Last year saw continued strong demand for industrial robots, especially from Asia's expanding automotive industry, and further robust growth is forecast during the next three years."
Where Silicon Valley's future counterpart, Robot Valley, will spring up is still unclear; although, Michigan is reportedly crafting tax incentives and other promotions, due to the state's number of robots used in auto manufacturing; and South Korea "is obsessed with robotics," according to ZDNet News. However, recent reports and attentive media interest, as well as robot developers' general focus, operations and revenue do make clear that there is a significant future for robotics technologies and robots — both industrial and commercial. Robots do not appear to be a fad — they appear to be the future.
In fact, 18th century Scottish economist Adam Smith foresaw an eventual clash between robots and humans; and contemporary detractors are already scuffling with robotic presence because of their replacement of human workers in various occupations. (Smith said, "The robot is going to lose. Not by much. But when the final score is tallied, flesh and blood is going to beat the damn monster.") While inventor Ray Kurzweil has said that, in the not-too-distant future, a historic moment called the Singularity will take place. It is then — he predicts year 2045 — that technology's advancement will have progressed to the point that it will bring forth a merger of humans and machines.
References
Europe needs bigger robots push
BBC News, Oct. 7, 2005
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4318622.stm
FAQ: Keeping pace with robots
Jonathan Skillings (CNET News)
ZDNet News, Oct. 5, 2005
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-5889478.html
Robotic Rollouts
Jon Burke
Technology Review, Oct. 12, 2005
http://technologyreview.com/articles/05/10/wo/wo_101205burke.asp
AIBO learns to talk
Stuff editorial team
Stuff magazine, Sept. 30, 2005
http://www.stuffmag.co.uk/hotstuffarticle.asp?de_id=560
Robots compete in football league
BBC News, May 11, 2005
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4534451.stm
Enlisting robots for day care
Michael Kanellos (CNET News)
ZDNet News, June 23, 2005
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-5758300.html?tag=nl
North American Robotics Market Up 36% In First Half of 2005
Robotics Online, Aug. 9, 2005
http://www.roboticsonline.com/public/articles/articlesdetails.cfm?id=2077
In a Grueling Desert Race, a Winner, but Not a Driver
John Markoff
New York Times, Oct. 9, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/national/09robot.html?ei=5088&en=93f28d194b2d899f&ex=1286510400&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted
Robotics Industry Off to Fastest Start Ever
Robotics Online, May 11, 2005
http://www.roboticsonline.com/public/articles/articlesdetails.cfm?id=1969
Demand grows for industrial robots
Frances Williams
Financial Times, Oct. 11, 2005
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6f5f5820-39f3-11da-806e-00000e2511c8.html
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6 CommentsExtremely interesting information.
I am very interested in robotics future in health care. The dental technology field is currently using milling machines to mill full metal and zirconia tooth restorations, technicians still do the scan before the case can be milled to spec. Is there any research going on in the dental technology field?
October 26, 2005 3:06 PMThe profileration of robots in industrial, commercial and now consumer applications is partly predicated on the notion that the substitution of human labor with that of automated labor will result in a reallocation of that labor to higher value-added tasks.
But has this really happened? Or have we simply automated people out of jobs? I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. But I also suspect that industry, which has the most experience with robotics, has not done a terribly good job of measuring, in cases where the reallocation was meant to create a shift to higher value activities, the effectiveness of the reallocation.
Has industry truly created a better and more highly valued working experience for those that have remained?
David Brousell
Editor-in-Chief
Managing Automation
I expect that robotics will continue to emerge as a growth industry for the foreseeable future. Each year there is substantial growth in the use of automated machinery, and indeed simple robotics for simple tasks. There are also more complicated robots for more complicated and more risky tasks. From what is happening, there seems to be no end to what robots could possibly do in the future, if sufficient time and funding is allocated for the work.
If you have any thoughts about speculative fiction in this field, consult either Isaac Asimov's fiction classic I, ROBOT (not the movie, which was a poor interpretation of the book), or Robert A. Heinlein's THE DOOR INTO SUMMER.
While Asimov imagined a humaniform robot (a la Mr. Data from Star Trek Next Generation) that could perform tasks too dangerous or mundane for humans, Heinlein took the low-tech track where his hero in the story was an engineer developing household robots for the enviable task of doing housework (cooking, cleaning, sweeping, washing windows, changing the baby, etc.). This is a commercial application that could be the biggest step forward in human progress ever made. Imagine being able to have a robot to do all of the mundane, repetitive, disagreeable, time-consuming, and just downright repugnant jobs in the home or on the job, that everyone in the world simply abhors doing??? I'd be the first person in line to buy a robot that would keep my house clean, so I could spend my personal time a lot more productively. Just think of one that could mow the lawn, wash the floors, shovel the snow, do the laundry, and all of those other menial tasks?
Then, think of one that could go in to disarm bombs, (they already have that), do real high-risk jobs that are essential, and let the dog out when you're too busy to open the door. Few of these things require human judgement. Just a robot that is intelligent enough to do a basic function and yell for help when it finds something that's outside its programming.
I think that one day, all non-intellectual jobs and all work that does not require human judgement will be probably done by robots. But, that will never take the human out of the loop. It well keep people in the loop of work because robots are VERY far from being able to exercise human judgement. Until they do, I think most of our jobs are safe.
October 28, 2005 12:26 PM
