Members of the industrial PVF (pipe, valves and fittings) industry have once again predicted an upswing in their market and yet, year after year, reality rarely coincides with expectation. Although the stainless steel segment has gained some ground, the remainder of the PVF industry has seen their anticipated victory repeatedly downsized to the modest blush one feels upon snatching a crumb. 2001 appears to have the same in store.

Of course, in a country as large as the US, expectations for the PVF industry are also varied by region. In the Northeast things are in fact looking rosier. Chalk this up to the boom in biotech and pharmaceutical firms in that region. According to Bergen Industrial Supply's (Elmwood Park, NJ) Jim La Porte Sr., "The pharmaceutical companies are spending not millions but billions of dollars."

On the West Coast, Earl Cohen, president of Kelly Pipe (Santa Fe Springs, CA) maintains that an increase in oil and gas production has kept his company's oil-country product division busy, but he is less optimistic about other ventures. He mentions a recent influx of cheaper products from China in particular as boding ill for his operations. Welded pipe manufacturers, it seems, are finding it difficult to compete with the imports. Cohen has little to pin his hopes in, other than anti-dumping suits. "Maybe in a while, we'll have the hole plugged. In the meantime, we have a lot of inventory. We hate to see the prices go down with so much pipe in our yard."

Across the PVF industry it is perhaps the stainless steel segment that shows the most promise. Having said that, it is because figures have been so dismal in years past that stainless steel manufacturers have a reason to expect improvement. Furthermore, with the price of nickel poised to drop again, industry heads are predicting renewed erosion of demand in the near future.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas maintains that a high worldwide demand for petroleum products, coupled with a shortage of tankers to transport these resources, will keep prices up for a few years. If this prediction proves true, then PVF wholesalers, and other suppliers to oil fields and refiners, can expect to ride the current wave of demand a while longer. The Dallas Fed goes on to say that oil-rich Texas, as well as energy-exporting neighbors like Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma, can expect a certain degree of continued economic health.

In terms of an overall prediction for the year, the Valve Manufacturers Association of America paints a so-so picture with an increase in shipments that is expected to hover stubbornly around 2%, with a total estimated sales of $3.12 billion. Once again, the PVF industry is left to heave a collective shrug and a sigh, "Maybe next year."

Source: 2001 Industrial PVF Forecast
Marjie O'Connor
Supply House Times, January 2001
http://www.supplyht.com/articles/pvf/0101/PVFforecast.asp