Global energy usage will continue to rise over the next few decades as populations grow and emerging economies consume a larger portion of world resources. This means that many industries must balance energy costs against consumption rates and improve energy efficiency. The long-term U.S. forecast remains bright, however, with projected increases in production, greater reliance on new energy sources and more efficient technologies driving down costs.

The economic recovery will be a key factor in global energy demand over the coming years, as business activity continues to accelerate worldwide and industries’ energy requirements increase to meet the needs of expanding consumer markets. While developed economies are likely to dominate energy production and consumption in the short-term future, emerging economies are poised to play an increasingly larger role in the energy industry.

According to the BP Energy Outlook 2030, global energy demand is forecast to rise 39 percent by 2030, or 1.6 percent annually, with most of the growth occurring in non-developed economies. Developed economies are expected to account for just 4 percent of total growth in this period, while emerging economies will be responsible for the remaining 96 percent. Energy consumption per capita is forecast to grow at a 0.7 percent rate, roughly the same pace since 1970.

“[T]here are things we can’t change — like the underlying drivers of energy demand — and things we can change — like the way we satisfy that demand,” BP chief executive Bob Dudley said in an announcement of the results. “The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximizes efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future.”

Fossils fuels are likely to remain the predominant form of energy resource for the next two decades, but advances in fuel efficiency and the development of feasible alternative energy sources will play an increasingly prominent role in energy consumption patterns.

The latest World Energy Outlook report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption will fall from around 81 percent today to 75 percent in 2035, while renewable energy’s share is expected to increase from 13 percent to 18 percent over the same period. Much of this growth in renewables will be supported by subsidies, which are expected to rise from $66 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035.

Global oil demand will climb from 87 million barrels per day to 99 million in 2035, with all net growth deriving from the transportation sector in emerging economies. Coal consumption, which was responsible for nearly half the increase in energy usage over the past decade, will climb 65 percent by 2035. Growth in natural gas usage will nearly match that of coal consumption in the next twenty years.

On the supply side, liquid energy resource (including oil and biofuels) production will increase in proportion to demand. BP forecasts that the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will account for 70 percent of incremental supply by 2030 and its market share will approach 45 percent. Supply from the Americas will also increase, rising by 8 million barrels per day due to the unlocking of Canadian oil sands, Brazilian deepwater drilling and United States shale oil production. These gains “will see the Western Hemisphere become almost totally energy self-sufficient by 2030.”

In the U.S. alone, crude oil production is expected to increase more than 20 percent over the next 10 years, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gains in domestic oil production, coupled with higher usage of biofuels and modest growth in the transportation sector, are expected to drive down liquid petroleum imports from 49 percent in 2010 to 38 percent in 2020 and 36 percent in 2035. Proposed fuel economy standards for vehicles could further reduce the country’s liquid energy needs.

Natural gas production is expected to be a strong contributor to the U.S. energy market. The application of recent technological advances and continued shale drilling will cause natural gas production to exceed consumption early in the next decade, with the U.S. projected to become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2016 and an overall net exporter of natural gas in 2021. Currently, natural gas supplies are 40 percent higher than the five-year average.

“There is one reason the U.S. economy is recovering: Low gas prices. Natural gas, that is,” CBS MoneyWatch reports. “The price is at a 10-year low and expected to stay that way for awhile. This glut of inexpensive energy is why so many companies have been moving manufacturing back to the U.S.”

The EIA estimates that the combination of rising energy supplies in the U.S. and an increased focus on more efficient energy usage is likely to drive down energy requirements and costs over the long-term. However, improving energy efficiency is still a major priority, and more efforts are needed to counterbalance consumption through smart energy projects, both domestically and globally.

“Growth, prosperity and rising population will inevitably push up energy needs over the coming decades. But we cannot continue to rely on insecure and environmentally unsustainable uses of energy,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a release on the IEA findings. “Governments need to introduce stronger measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies. The Fukushima nuclear accident, the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge.”

The market for energy efficiency project installations and services in the U.S. is estimated to have exceeded $5.1 billion in 2011, according to Pike Research. Public policies encouraging greater energy efficiency to reduce costs and improve operations are forecast to drive the market up to at least $13 billion in sales by 2020.

The key energy policy initiatives supported by the White House include a strategy to double the share of electricity generated from clean energy sources by 2035, supporting clean energy manufacturing through tax incentives, opening public land for private investment in renewable generation and promoting the development of breakthrough technologies through research competitions.