Following a brief uptick earlier this year, the U.S. employment situation is on the decline again, with jobless claims rising and many businesses cutting back payrolls. While mounting economic uncertainty may cause further problems, there are some positive signs in the hiring outlook for the remainder of 2011.

While the overall United States economy has emerged from the recession, job growth has remained sluggish over the past two years and unemployment has lingered at a relatively high level. However, many companies are planning to ramp up their hiring efforts in the next two quarters, and momentum is building for stronger job growth through the rest of 2011.

The national unemployment rate slowly but steadily dropped through the first quarter of 2011, declining to 8.8 percent in March, but job market fluctuations drove the rate back up to 9.1 percent in July, higher than at the start of the year, according to historical data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report from the Labor Dept. indicates there were 3.1 million job openings in the U.S. through June, with the hiring rate reaching 3.1 percent at the mid-point of the year and the job separations rate also standing at 3.1 percent.

While the number of available jobs in June was nearly 1 million more than during the low-point in June 2009, it remained far below the 4.4 million openings reported at the start of the recession in December 2007.

The number of hires reached 4.1 million in June, including 246,000 new hires in manufacturing and 790,000 in trade, transportation and utilities. The overall hiring rate for the private sector totaled 3.5 percent in June, up from 3.4 percent in June 2010. With approximately 14.09 million unemployed Americans in the workforce, there were roughly 4.5 potential job seekers for each open position, down from 4.6 in May and 5.4 from the prior year.

According to staffing services firm ADP, private sector employment increased by 114,000 jobs from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 145,000 gain from May to June. Employment in the service sector rose 121,000, while the goods-producing sector dropped 7,000 and manufacturing employment dropped 1,000, despite growing in seven of the previous nine months.

“Employment on small payrolls (up to 49 workers) rose 58,000 in July, while employment on medium payrolls (50 to 499 workers) rose 47,000. Employment on large payrolls (500 or more workers) rose a smaller 9,000,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, LLC, said in an announcement of the findings.

Although recent hiring has been relatively slow and done little to offset job losses across the country, employment prospects are stronger for the remainder of the year.

The latest employment outlook report from Manpower found that 20 percent of U.S. employers plan to add to their workforces in the third quarter, up from 16 percent in the second quarter, while only 8 percent plan to decrease staff, resulting in an anticipated 12 percent net employment gain. This net gain is up from the 10 percent totals for Q2 2011 and Q3 2010.

All four major regions of the U.S. are expected to make positive hiring gains, led by the Northeast and the Midwest, each with a 14 percent net outlook. By industry, the strongest hiring is expected to be in leisure and hospitality (27 percent), mining (25 percent) and wholesale and resale trade (20 percent). Durable goods manufacturing has a 17 percent net employment outlook, while non-durable goods manufacturing is projected to gain 16 percent.

“Our data shows that one in five employers plan to add staff in the next three months, the highest ratio we’ve seen since the recovery started,” Jonas Prising, Manpower’s president of the Americas, said in an announcement of the findings. “As more employers shift to hiring mode, we are starting to see talented job seekers receive multiple employment offers, and also negotiate for higher salaries. As hiring momentum slowly builds, the talent supply and demand… will impact hiring trends. Employers may want to hire, but they will struggle to find the right person, in the right place, which will bring a level of urgency to developing new recruiting and training strategies.”

With hiring expected to pick up across the country and in most major industries, adding talented staff may soon become a business imperative, especially considering the close connection between employment and spending.

“For an individual company, keeping down labor costs is a smart move. But the U.S. economy as a whole suffers when weak labor markets hold back consumer spending,” the Wall Street Journal‘s Real Time Economics blog explains. “The same companies that are laying off workers today will soon wonder why they have no customers later on.”

Hiring is projected to increase not only in the third quarter, but through the second half of the year and possibly beyond.

According to a recent survey by CareerBuilder.com, 47 percent of employers plan to hire new employees from July through December, up from 41 percent last year. Thirty-five percent are hiring full-time, permanent employees, up from 28 percent in 2010, while 15 percent will hire part-time employees and 12 percent plan to hire contract or temporary workers.

“Last year, certain sectors or departments in companies were producing jobs. This year, the U.S. is seeing job creation in all industries, functions and company sizes,” Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder, said. “While higher energy prices, debt, inflation and other factors may deter a significant acceleration in hiring, employers have encouraging news for the millions of Americans who are looking for jobs.”

Despite these positive signs, job growth is likely to remain slow for the foreseeable future, particularly following the modest economic growth projections for this year and the succeeding decade.

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office projects the employment rate will fall to 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, then down to 8.5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2012. The decline is expected to moderate somewhat after that, remaining above 8 percent until at least 2014.

Earlier: 2011 Hiring Outlook

Resources

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
U.S. Department of Labor, August 2011

Job Openings and Labor Turnover — June 2011
U.S. Department of Labor, Aug. 10, 2011

July 2011 ADP National Employment Report
ADP, Aug. 3, 2011

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 114,000 Jobs in July
ADP, Aug. 3, 2011

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Q3 2011
Manpower, June 2011

…Positive Hiring Intentions Persist Among U.S. Employers for Third Quarter
Manpower, June 14, 2011

Length of Unemployment Continues to Break Records
by Catherine Rampell
Economix (The New York Times), Aug. 5, 2011

Job Cutters May Reap What They Sow
by Kathleen Madigan
Real Time Economics (The Wall Street Journal), July 12, 2011

…Mid-Year Job Forecast Provides Encouraging Outlook for U.S. Job Seekers
CareerBuilder.com, July 7, 2011

The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update
Congressional Budget Office, Aug. 24, 2011