In light of the devastation in Japan last month, a new National Research Council report advocates a 20-year program to build earthquake “resilience” in the U.S.

April 18 marks the 105th anniversary of the tragic 1906 San Francisco earthquake, estimated at magnitude 7.9 and one of the most significant earthquakes of all time. While the United States has been subject to earthquakes since then, it has been a relatively long time since the country felt a truly devastating earthquake, and that may have made Americans complacent about their preparedness, a new report from the National Research Council (NRC) warns.

“In recent decades, destructive earthquakes in the U.S. have only been moderate to strong in size or have occurred in sparsely populated areas; the country has not suffered a truly devastating earthquake in more than a hundred years,” an announcement of the new study, commissioned by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, says. “Because of this, the committee expressed concern that many people have been lulled into a false sense of security that the nation already is earthquake resilient.”

The report, titled National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach, states that the last major quake to hit the United States was the tremor in San Francisco in 1906. The committee of experts wrote most of the report prior to the March 11 earthquake in Japan, but the authors have also noted that the Japanese experience is a reminder of the damage that can occur even in a country acknowledged as a leader in implementing earthquake-resilience measures.

“The lesson in Japan and the lessons from Hurricane Katrina show that when you go from a moderate event to a larger, greater event, it can cause a lot of trouble,” Robert Hamilton, a retired seismologist and chairman of the committee that compiled the report, told ABC News.

The report highlights the results of a recent earthquake-scenario exercise in California, which indicated that a major earthquake would result in staggering losses. The 2008 exercise estimated that a magnitude-7.8 quake in Los Angeles would result in 1,800 deaths, $113 billion in damages to buildings and $70 billion in business interruptions.

The council, an arm of the National Academy of Sciences, urges a 20-year program to build earthquake resilience in the U.S. This doesn’t mean earthquake-proofing everything (which is impossible), but rather taking steps to lessen the potential for damage and hasten recovery from disaster.

“A disaster-resilient nation is one in which its communities, through mitigation and pre-disaster preparation, develop the adaptive capacity to maintain important community functions and recover quickly when major disasters occur,” the report explains.

To that end, the report identifies an 18-task roadmap for implementing a 2008 strategic plan adopted by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), which its authors believe would better prepare the nation to handle a major earthquake.

As New Scientist notes, the NRC report outlines three major goals: 1) raising understanding of earthquakes; 2) developing cost-effective measures to reduce the effects of earthquakes on individuals, the built environment and society at large; and 3) improving the earthquake resilience of communities nationwide.

The 18 recommendations are:

1. Pursue additional research to improve understanding of earthquake phenomena and increase earthquake-prediction capabilities;
2. Deploy the remaining 75 percent of the Advanced National Seismic System to provide magnitude and location alerts within a few minutes after an earthquake;
3. Evaluate, test and deploy earthquake early-warning systems;
4. Complete coverage of national and urban seismic hazard maps to identify at-risk areas;
5. Develop and implement earthquake forecasting to provide communities with information on how seismic hazards change with time;
6. Develop scenarios that integrate earth science, engineering and social science information so that communities can visualize earthquake and tsunami impacts and mitigate potential effects;
7. Integrate science, engineering and social science information in an advanced GIS-based platform to improve earthquake risk assessment and loss estimation;
8. Model expected and improvised emergency response and recovery activities and outcomes to improve pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness;
9. Capture, disseminate and create a repository of information on geological, structural, institutional, and socio-economic impacts and disaster responses after earthquakes occur;
10. Support social sciences research to evaluate mitigation and recovery strategies;
11. Establish an observatory network to measure, monitor and model the disaster vulnerability and resilience of communities;
12. Enable accurate simulations of fault rupture, seismic wave propagation through bedrock and soil-structure interaction to understand the response of buildings to shaking, and compute reliable estimates of financial loss, business interruption and casualties;
13. Develop new techniques for evaluating and retrofitting existing buildings to better withstand earthquakes;
14. Enhance performance-based engineering to achieve better building design and enable improved codes and standards for buildings;
15. Review and update standards so that critical “lifeline” infrastructure — such as electricity, highways and water supply — remain intact following an earthquake;
16. Develop and deploy the next generation of “green” high-performance construction materials and components for use in buildings’ seismic framing systems;
17. Encourage and coordinate technology transfer between the NEHRP and the private sector; and
18. Initiate earthquake-resiliency pilot projects in local communities to improve awareness, reduce risk and enhance emergency preparedness and recovery capacity.

Reaching the three major goals is likely to cost $6.8 billion over the next 20 years. For the first five years, the committee estimates that the cost for its earthquake-resilience roadmap would be $306 million annually. In 2009, funding for NEHRP totaled $129.7 million.

Earlier

Devastation in Japan to Have Far-Reaching Effects

Odds Are High for Big Calif. Quakes

Resources

National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach
The National Research Council, March 2011

U.S. Earthquake Resilience Needs Strengthening, Says New Report
The National Research Council, March 30, 2011

National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: Strategic Plan 200-2012
The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, April 2008

Is the U.S. Earthquake Ready? Not by a Long Shot
by Lisa Stark and Amy Bingham
ABC News, March 30, 2011

$6.8 Billion Needed to Ready US for the Next Big Quake
by Ferris Jabr
New Scientist, March 30, 2011

Where Can I Learn More About the 1906 Earthquake?
Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Sept. 17, 2010 (last updated)

The Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
U.S. Geological Survey, Jan. 29, 2009 (last updated)

Japan’s Strict Building Codes Saved Lives
by James Glanz and Norimitsu Onishi
The New York Times, March 11, 2011

A Lesson from Japan: Be Prepared for Earthquakes
by Randolph E. Schmid
The Associated Press, March 30, 2011

When the Big One Strikes Again
by Charles Kircher
100th Anniversary 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Conference, 2006