World energy use is expected to jump nearly 50 percent by 2035, driven mostly by developing nations such as China and India, a new report from the Energy Information Administration says.

Following a 1.2 percent contraction in 2008 and an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, total worldwide energy consumption is expected to increase by 49 percent between 2007 and 2035 — from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) to 739 quadrillion Btu — according to a report from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday.

The EIA, the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy, forecasts the most rapid growth in energy demand from 2007 to 2035 will occur in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries is forecast to rise by 84 percent, while energy use in the OECD countries is expected to increase by 14 percent.

“China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world’s economic and energy demand growth into the future,” according to an announcement of the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2010 report. “In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20 percent of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 30 percent of world energy use… .”

“In contrast, the projected share of world energy consumption in the United States, the world’s biggest energy guzzler at present, would fall from 21 percent in 2007 to about 16 percent in 2035,” Agence France-Presse reports of the EIA findings.

A December 2009 report from ExxonMobil estimated that due to economic and population growth, global energy demand will rise by 1.2 percent per year through 2030, resulting in 35 percent more energy consumption two decades from now than the 2005 average.

Today, energy usage plays a sizable role in business competitiveness, particularly as many companies continue to focus on keeping costs low, minimizing production delays and meeting demand levels.

“The industrial sector uses more energy globally than any other end-use sector, currently consuming about 50 percent of the world’s total delivered energy,” the EIA report claims.

Energy will continue to be a critical factor in the future of industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, mining and construction — not to mention the U.S. economy as a whole. Power generation and distribution, as well as energy pricing and consumption — for activities ranging from processing and assembly, space conditioning and lighting — remain key concerns for businesses across the industrial sector.

“Worldwide, projected industrial energy consumption [will] grow from 184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035,” the EIA says.

The non-OECD economies are expected to account for about 95 percent of the world’s 66 percent increase in industrial sector energy consumption.

Second only to the industrial sector in terms of total end-use energy consumption, the transportation sector uses almost 30 percent of the world’s total delivered energy, most of it in the form of liquid fuels.

Including the energy consumed in moving goods and people by road, rail, air, water and pipeline, the transportation sector’s share of total liquids consumption is expected to rise from 53 percent in 2007 to 61 percent in 2035, accounting for 87 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption.

The buildings sector, which comprises both commercial and residential consumers, accounts for about one-fifth of the world’s total delivered energy consumption. In the EIA’s new report, world residential energy use is projected to increase by 1.1 percent per year over the projection period, from 50 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 69 quadrillion Btu in 2035. OECD commercial energy use is expected to expand by 0.9 percent per year, while the energy required to fuel growth in commercial buildings throughout non-OECD nations is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent per year from 2007 to 2035.

Among the highlights of the report’s fuel-type projections:

• Petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, although higher oil prices are expected to erode their share of total energy use from 35 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2035.
• World natural gas consumption will increase 1.3 percent per year, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane supplies will rise substantially, especially from the U.S., but also from Canada and China.
• World net electricity generation will jump by 87 percent, from 18.8 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2007 to 35.2 trillion kWh in 2035. Renewables will be the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation, rising by 3 percent per year (with its share of world electricity generation increasing from 18 percent in 2007 to 23 percent in 2035), followed by coal-fired generation, which will increase by 2.3 percent per year. Generation from nuclear power will increase by 2 percent per year.
• In the absence of new national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption will increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. China alone is projected to account for 78 percent of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.

The EIA also forecasts energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will jump by 43 percent, from 29.7 billion tons in 2007 to 42.4 billion tons in 2035.

The report is based on an assumption that “current policies are unchanged.”

The EIA’s next international energy outlook will be released in May 2011.

Recent: 2010 Energy Outlook

Resources

International Energy Outlook 2010
U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 25, 2010

World Energy Use Projected to Grow 49 Percent Between 2007 and 2035…
U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 25, 2010

Energy Use Set to Jump 50 Percent by 2035: Report
by P. Parameswaran
Agence France-Presse, May 25, 2010

Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030
ExxonMobil, December 2009