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Over the past few months, economists have been telling the American public that the nation’s economy has turned the corner. However, new reports indicate consumers may not be quite ready to embrace this good news.
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The Conference Board on Tuesday reported that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 57.9 this month, up from 52.3 in March. The reading for April, well above the median forecast of 53.5, is the highest since the 61.4 reading in September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and sent confidence into freefall the following month.
Consumers who claim present-day conditions are “good” increased to 9.1 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” declined to 40.2 percent from 42.1 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market also improved.
“Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in March, gained further ground in April. The Index is now at its highest reading in about a year and a half,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. “Consumers’ concerns about current business and labor market conditions eased again. And, their outlook regarding business conditions and the labor market was also more positive than last month.”
In fact, increasing optimism about the labor market drove the uptick in confidence. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 4.8 percent from 4 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 46.3 percent to 45 percent.
The percentage of consumers anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18 percent from 14.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 20 percent from 21.4 percent.
“We have been seeing weakness in consumer outlook and this has, at least temporarily, reversed that,” Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions, told Reuters.
“I think it is good to see the (confidence) numbers moving up again, but I don’t call it a major change in confidence,” Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wells Fargo Advisors, told the Associated Press. “But it does reflect a more optimistic view in the job market.”
However, while the monthly survey of consumers showed that current and short-term concerns about jobs and the overall economy are easing, April’s reading of 57.9 is still not considered healthy.
The index, based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, measures how shoppers feel about business conditions, the job market and the outlook for the next six months. A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing, and a reading higher than 100 signals strong growth.
On Monday, a Harris Poll found Americans’ view of the economy was unchanged in April despite encouraging data.
A separate monthly consumer index, from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan, slipped to 69.5 in early April — the lowest in five months. April’s overall index on consumer sentiment was below the 73.6 reading seen at the end of March and the 75.0 median forecast of analysts polled by the news agency.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey’s gauge of current economic conditions slipped to 80.7 in early April, the lowest since December and below the 82.4 in late March and 84 forecast by analysts.
Consumer sentiment is considered a proxy for consumer spending, which fuels about 70 percent of the U.S. economy.
In terms of consumer outlook, findings from The Conference Board and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan are also at odds.
The Conference Board found that consumer outlook was brighter in April, with the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months having increased to 19.8 percent from 18 percent. Those expecting conditions will worsen declined to 12.6 percent from 13.6 percent.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index survey’s barometer of consumer expectations fell to 62.3 in early April, the lowest since March 2009 and well below the 67.9 seen at the end of March. It also fell short of the 68.7 predicted by analysts. Consumers’ 12-month economic outlook fell to 71 from 78 in March, although it was up from 54 a year earlier.
Economists believe confidence will remain relatively weak for at least another year because companies haven’t begun to dramatically ramp up hiring.
“Looking ahead, continued job growth will be key in sustaining positive momentum,” Franco said.
Resources
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increases
The Conference Board, April 27, 2010
The Harris Poll: Americans Still Not Confident Economy Has Turned
Harris Interactive, April 26, 2010
Consumer Mood Unexpectedly Worse in Early April
by Richard Leong
Reuters, April 16, 2010
Consumer Confidence Rises to 57.9 in April
by Anne D’Innocenzio
The Associated Press, April 27, 2010










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Well, that’s probably because economists didn’t cut their prices or get laid off during the crisis. The rest of us still don’t have the cash flow. The reality. But things are picking up.