Plus: Retail Imports to Rise, Jobless Claims Increase and Global Recovery to Slow Down.

Wholesale Inventories and Sales Post Gains
Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.6 percent in February, while sales increased for the 11th consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday.

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.6 percent from the revised January level, but were down 7.4 percent from a year ago. The January preliminary estimate was revised upward 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the 0.8 percent rise in sales followed a 0.9 percent January advance and marked the 11th straight month that sales have been up. The February 2010 sales level was up 9.8 percent from the same month last year.

“The gains were an encouraging sign that stronger demand is prompting businesses to restock depleted shelves, a development that will help sustain the economic recovery,” the Associated Press says. “Analysts are hoping that the string of sales increases will prompt businesses to begin restocking their depleted shelves on a sustained basis, giving a boost to the economy as it struggles to recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.”

OECD Forecasts Slowdown in Economic Recovery
The economic recovery may be losing momentum among developed countries, as new data indicate that economic growth in the U.S., Japan and Europe is likely to slow down in the first half of 2010.

According to last week’s economic assessment from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group representing 30 of the world’s major economies, the G7 nations are expected to see an average of 1.9 percent annualized growth in the first quarter of 2010 and 2.3 percent growth in Q2, down from the 3.7 percent gain in Q4 2009.

“Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow faster in the U.S. than in Japan and the three largest euro area countries — Germany, France and Italy — but will remain generally fragile as inventory destocking by businesses and the ending of some fiscal stimulus measures weighs on activity,” the report said. “Consumer and business demand is likely to suffer from sluggish credit growth and difficult labour market conditions.”

The OECD projects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.4 percent in the first quarter and 2.3 percent in the second, down from the 5.6 percent increase in the last quarter of 2009. In Japan, GDP is expected to total 1.1 percent in Q1 and 2.3 percent in Q2. Germany, France and Italy are expected to see combined growth of 0.9 percent in Q1 and 1.9 percent in Q2.

U.S. Import Cargo Expected to Rise Through August
Import cargo at major U.S. retail container ports will rise 8 percent in April from year-ago levels and continue to rise in the following months, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Based on data from America’s major retail container ports, April retail imports are expected to reach 1.07 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up from an estimated 1.02 million TEU in March. Looking further ahead, May is forecast to hit 1.12 million TEU, June is projected to climb to 1.18 million TEU, July is expected to reach 1.24 million TEU and August is projected to hit 1.32 million TEU. (Source: Logistics Management)

“Retail sales are starting to improve and retailers are importing merchandise in the quantities they need to meet that demand,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in a statement. “We expect these numbers to continue to climb as merchants and their customers move away from the recession and back toward normal shopping habits.”

Jobless Claims Increase Unexpectedly
New initial jobless claims rose in the latest week reported, according to the United States Department of Labor. Seasonally adjusted unemployment claims for the week ending April 3 reached a total of 460,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s 442,000. The latest four-week moving average was 450,250, a 2,520 increase from the previous week’s average.

The climb in jobless claims was unexpected, with economists surveyed by Reuters expecting a drop to 435,000 for the week, and analysts polled by MarketWatch forecasting the number to remain unchanged at 442,000. Without seasonal adjustments, jobless claims increased by 6,492 from the prior week.

“The figures underscore that the job market remains weak even as the economy recovers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that high unemployment is one of the toughest challenges the economy faces,” the Associated Press reports.

Despite the increase, jobless claims remain well below the March 2009 peak, when new initial claims rose to over 650,000, though experts say the numbers must continue to fall until down to approximately 400,000 to be consistent with a stable employment market, the Wall Street Journal explains.

“Claims seem to have stabilised. Unfortunately, they’ve done so at a level well above pre-recession norms,” the Economist’s Free Exchange blog notes. “The March payroll employment figures generated a lot of optimism about a potential turnaround in the labour market, but it’s difficult to reconcile sustained strong gains with this kind of performance.”