Plus: Job Losses Continue to Decline, China Widens Auto Market Lead, U.S. Government Funds Carbon Capture Work and MORE.

Economists Agree Recession Has Ended but Expect a Slow Recovery
New survey data shows that the majority of economists believe the recession is over in the United States and a period of economic expansion has begun, although worries persist over a slow recovery.

According to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), 80 percent of respondents consider the recession to have ended, boosting the economic outlook for the next several quarters. NABE forecasters predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rise 2.9 percent in the second half of 2009, following 6.4 percent and 0.7 percent rates of contraction in the first and second quarters, respectively.

“The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines,” NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser said in a statement.

Despite these optimistic signs, concerns remain over high debt levels. According to the New York Times, the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 was $1.4 trillion, a trillion dollars higher than the previous year. The elevated deficit coupled with continuing job losses may contribute to significant public anxieties, while investors crucial to financing the debt, such as China and other nations, are keen to see the U.S. stabilize its budgets, the Times reports.

Although consumer spending, one of the largest factors driving economic strength, began to rebound in the second of 2009, consumption is likely to remain low in 2010, the Associated Press adds. However, the improving housing market is expected to contribute to overall growth next year, while inflation and federal interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future.

“The good news,” Reaser added, “is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation.”

China Widens Lead over U.S. as World’s Top Auto Market
“China has widened its lead over the United States as the world’s top auto market, with September sales vaulting 78 percent, spurred by tax cuts and government stimulus spending,” the Associated Press reports.

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automotive sales rose 16.98 percent last month, reaching 1.33 million vehicles in September. Sales of passenger cars in September “rose a hefty 83.6 percent from a year earlier, with just over 1 million cars sold in the month,” Reuters adds.

“After a sharp slowdown late last year, the Chinese government halved taxes on purchases of small autos,” the AP reports. “It is spending 5 billion yuan (about US$730 million) on subsidies for purchases of light trucks and minivans in the countryside, where most of China’s people live.”

In January, China’s auto market overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest. It now leads the world in sales, with 9.66 million vehicles sold over the first nine months of the year, up 34 percent from the same period last year. The U.S., ranking second, had January-September sales at about 7.8 million cars and light trucks, according to Autodata Corp.

Meanwhile, General Motors Co. saw its sales in China for January-September surge 55.6 percent from a year earlier, according to a separate Reuters report. The Detroit automaker, which is reorganizing toward a leaner company following its emergence from bankruptcy protection, is the largest overseas automaker in China, according to Edmunds.com’s Inside Line.

New Jobless Claims Continue to Drop
The number of new initial claims for unemployment continued to decline in the latest weekly report, elevating hopes for a return to stability in a job market that has struggled to reach the same level of turnaround as in other segments of the economy.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor‘s claims data for the week ending Oct. 10, seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 514,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average also fell to 531,500, a decrease of 9,000 claims.

These figures indicate the rate of new jobless claims is at the lowest level since January and that companies are letting go of fewer workers, although the decline is not significant enough to signal new hiring, the AP reports.

Agence France-Presse notes that “most economists expect growth to return in the third quarter but say the recovery could fade without job growth.”

Energy Secretary Announces Carbon Capture Project
U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has announced that the government will provide $55 million in funding to help develop technology that will capture carbon dioxide at existing power plants and sequester the emissions to reduce their environmental effect or be put to use.

In a statement last Tuesday, Chu said the initiative will not only assist in emissions control, “but also create new jobs and help position the U.S. as a leader in carbon capture and storage technologies for many years. These technologies will not only give us a healthier planet, they will strengthen our economy and lay a foundation for a new generation of clean energy jobs.”

The funding will provide direct investment for projects involving membranes, solvents, solid sorbents and condensed-phase capture systems, and is specifically focused on technologies that can be retrofitted to existing facilities, particularly coal power plants, which generate nearly half the nation’s domestic electricity supply.

The National Association of Manufacturers voiced its support for the program, claiming that this and similar large-scale efforts “will support the continued economic viability of our nation’s manufacturing base, create high-wage sustainable jobs and continue to improve our global environment.”

China Imposes Anti-Dumping Tax on Chemical Imports
Beginning last Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) will be imposing an anti-dumping tax of up to 37.5 percent on certain polyamide-6,6 imports from five countries, including the U.S., according to reports from the state-run Xinhua news agency.

According to Agence France-Press, “the tax would be effective for five years from Oct. 13 after probes found ‘the domestic polyamide-6/6 industry suffered substantial damages’ from ‘the dumping’ of the imports.”

Polyamide-6,6 is a chemical widely used to manufacture plastics and textiles.

Beginning tomorrow, China will require a security deposit on imported nylon 6, or polycaprolactam, from the U.S., the European Union, Russia and the Taiwan region,” according to a separate Xinhua report, published today. The decision followed a preliminary ruling of the MOC, which said the exporting countries “had dumped nylon 6 on the Chinese market and the imports had caused substantial damage to the domestic sector.”