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Round ‘em Up: Indicators and Activities

Faced with slower growth and increasing uncertainties in various markets, business owners are keeping a positive outlook for the near future. Here’s a look at the economic developments so far this month and how they may affect your business.



Business activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slower rate in September than in August, according to the purchasing and supply executives surveyed for the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.Despite the slower rate of growth, according to ISM, “the implication is that non-manufacturing business activity is continuing to increase for the 54th consecutive month.”

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector increased in September after one month of contraction, according to ISM. The Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for September was 52.7 percent, a 4.8 percentage point increase from the 47.9 percent reported in August. Six industries reported increased employment, nine reported a decrease and three indicated employment was unchanged from August.

Non-farm payrolls in the private sector grew by 58,000 last month, led by new jobs at small and midsize businesses, ADP reported last week. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees accounted for 53,000 of all new jobs in September, while midsize business added 31,000 and larger businesses lost 26,000, according to the Roseland, N.J.-based payroll firm.

According to the United States Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, employment rose in September and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.7 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 110,000 following increases of 93,000 in July and 89,000 in August (as revised).

Indeed, gains in service-sector employment (which grew by 97,000) were offset by continued declines in the manufacturing sector, which shed 39,000 jobs, according to ADP. Job losses were particularly heavy at construction and financial firms, which were rocked by problems in the mortgage and housing markets, the report said

Also last week, OPEN from American Express reported that hiring plans by smaller employers have dropped to their lowest point in seven years. In a nationwide survey of more than 600 small-business owners, only 31 percent said they were planning to hire full- or part-time staff within the next six months, down from 34 percent in the same period last year, reports Inc.com.

New Orders
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 53.4 percent in September from August’s 57 percent registered. This indicates continued expansion of new orders but at a slower rate than in August. ISM members note “competitive activity” and that customers are “being more conservative.”

Global Manufacturing Output
In September, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted its lowest reading for 25 months. The decline in the level of the PMI mainly reflected slower rates of expansion for output and new orders.

Slower growth of production was recorded not only for the U.S. — the slowest since March — but also for the Eurozone (22-month low) and the UK (which eased slightly from August’s 13-year high), whilst PMI data for Japan showed that output contracted for the second time in the past three months. In contrast, expansion of production picked up in India (10-month high) and Brazil.

Slower growth of production mainly reflected an easing in the rate of expansion of incoming new business in September, according to the global financial services firm’s latest report. The Global Manufacturing New Orders Index fell to a 28-month low of 52.5, a figure indicative of only a modest increase in new work received.

Pending Home Sales
Mortgage problems cut into pending homes sales in August, which fell by 6.5 percent, U.S. trade group the National Association of Realtors reported last week.

Pending home sales, which are based on signed sales contracts, were 21.5 percent below the same period last year. According to NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun, more than 10 percent of sales contracts in August fell through at the last moment, primarily as the result of canceled loans.

“Fewer contracts were being written because of mortgage availability issues,” Yun said in a statement. He said the problem has since become less severe and that home sales in the fall will better reflect market conditions.

Owner Optimism
Small-business owners are pushing past trouble in the housing and financial markets and are generally keeping a stable — if not positive — outlook for the coming six months, PNC Bank reported Thursday.

In a survey of more than 1,300 small-business owners nationwide, 87 percent said credit availability was the same or better than three months ago, the Pittsburgh-based bank said. While 43 percent of respondents said they expected housing values to decline, less than a quarter felt it would have a negative impact on sales and profits.

In fact, four out of five (80 percent) plan to make investments in their business, up from 76 percent last spring and 70 percent a year ago.

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