The Institute for Supply Management’s latest Manufacturing National Report on Business shows “new orders and production indexes advanced while the employment and inventories indexes declined.” Here comes the math.

The numbers for March:

• Purchasing Managers Index in March: 50.9 from 52.3 in February;
• New Orders in March: 51.6 from 54.9 in February;
• Production in March: 53.0 from 54.1 in February;
• Employment in March: 48.7 from 51.1 in February;
• Supplier Deliveries in March: 51.3 from 50.8 in February;
• Inventories in March: 47.5 from 44.6 in February;
• Customers’ Inventories in March: 48.0 from 53.0 in February;
• Prices in March: 65.0 from 59.0 in February;
• Backlog of Orders in March: 47.0 from 51.5 in February;
• Exports in March: 55.5 from 54.0 in February; and
• Imports in March: 57:5 from 61.5 in February.

PMI
“The past relationship between the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the overall economy indicates that the PMI average for January through March corresponds to a 2.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In addition, if the PMI for March is annualized, it also corresponds to a 2.8 percent in real GDP.”

To put this PMI in perspective, for the last 12 months, the high was 56.9 and the low was 49.3.

PRODUCTION

EMPLOYMENT
ISM’s Employment Index showed a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared with February’s seasonally adjusted reading. The Employment Index has failed to grow in four of the last five months. The four industries that did report growth: apparel, leather and allied products; transportation equipment; chemicals; and miscellaneous manufacturing.

INVENTORIES
Manufacturers’ inventories contracted for the eighth consecutive month in March:

(An Inventories Index greater than 42.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).)

PRICES
Prices for manufacturers appear to have been on the rise over the last four months.

EXPORTS
ISM’s New Export Orders registered an increase of 1.5 percentage point when compared with February; this is the 52nd consecutive month of growth. The net positive percentage changes for the last four months:

IMPORTS
Imports by manufacturers also grew during March; this was the 63rd consecutive month of growth in this area. The net positive percentage changes for the last four months:

As of Monday, April 2, rising oil prices and a weaker-than-expected manufacturing report dampened enthusiasm, according to CNNMoney. Undoubtedly, the thousands of laid-off workers in the American auto industry in addition to the several thousand Circuit City salespeople who received pink slips last week know all about dampened enthusiasm too. What may be interesting about this most recent wholesale round of layoffs was that these salespeople were rewarded with a pink slip for experience and probably knowing the product line and salesmanship pretty well. In short, they were fired for doing a good job, notes The New York Times. This lends new credence to the old adage: “no good deed goes unpunished.”

ISM sees one bright glimmer. “A positive for March is the Customers’ Inventories Index (falling below 50 percent after five consecutive months above the break-even line), which is a possible indication that manufacturers’ inventories are nearing satisfactory levels. On the negative side, prices appear to be surging for certain commodities in the face of slower growth.”

Source (including tables): Institute for Supply Management